Sydney-Hobart-Race 2006 - Übersicht December 24, 2006 'Tactical not survival' predicts Rolex Sydney Hobart favourite The “southerly buster” - an intense depression typical of a boat-breaking Rolex Sydney Hobart - forecast earlier in the week is now set to be further offshore from Sydney for the Boxing Day start of the annual 628 mile race south to Hobart. Due to this, the Tuesday start will not be in a 30 knot breeze as previously forecast, but in a more sedate 10-12 knots from the southwest or south decreasing over the first 24 hours of the race, according to Rob Webb from the Bureau of Meteorology. While the wind may have dropped, of concern for the 78 yachts taking the start line will be the residual swell from the south driven by the 40 knot winds blowing across the southern Tasman Sea between Australia and New Zealand on Christmas Day. These will clash with the warm current flowing south down the coast of eastern Australia, creating an uncomfortable lumpy seaway, more than capable of damaging the finely-tuned race boats in the south-bound fleet. Most race pundits believe the latest forecast reasserts Bob Oatley's line honours, handicap winner and record setter from 2005, Wild Oats XI, as this year's line honours favourite. The 30 knot headwinds and lumpy seas previously forecast were thought to favour the two Volvo Open 70s, ABN AMRO One and Matt Allen's Ichi Ban, both built to be raced hard around the world and that could be pushed in the tough conditions while the crew on the 98ft long Wild Oats XI would have to back off or risk breakage, as occurred to two of the leading maxis in the Rolex Sydney Hobart two years ago. Mark Richards, skipper of Wild Oats XI has never agreed with this theory. “If you see 35 or 40 knots we'll start thinking about backing off but you have to see pretty extreme conditions first,” he says. “We've been training for these conditions. Wild Oats is a very fast boat and so is ABN for her length. If it gets very rough then it might be a boat for boat situation, but I think we'll have the legs on most people.” Richards says he won't believe the forecast until the morning of start day although he admits that the present forecast indicates a good tactical race rather than one of survival. Fotos: Daniel Forster/Rolex Fotos: Carlo Borlenghi/Rolex Sydney boat-builder Sean Langman normally campaigns maxis in the Rolex Sydney Hobart, but this year he is racing one of the smallest boats, the 70 year old 9m long gaff-rigged classic, Maluka, which he has lovingly restored. Out of the running this time for line honours, Langman still believes the leftover sea state will cause some casualties among the racing fleet, but backs Wild Oats as the form boat. “The Wild Oats team are going to be very difficult to beat. I've had all the boats out at the boatyard and Wild Oats and ABN AMRO are by far the most immaculately prepared teams. I like the job that Wharro (Grant Wharington, skipper of the Skandia maxi, line honours winner in 2003) has done on his boat, but I think she is not powerful enough. Wild Oats has got to be the favourite.” While the wind is set to get lighter during the race, the weather conditions over the duration of this year's Rolex Sydney Hobart remain complex. Most believe the forecast at present either favours the biggest boats or the smallest, the mid-fleet set to be hurt worst by an area of high pressure set to extend across the fleet on Thursday. The line honours contenders are hoping that they are safely up tied up in Hobart's Constitution Dock before the wind drops off too much. “The question is can the big boats get in before it gets light,” confirms ABN AMRO One's American navigator Stan Honey, sailing his first Rolex Sydney Hobart. “Ideally the big boats get in and then there is a gate behind us to slow down the smaller boats. But the timing on that has been a bit touch and go over the last day or so. Right now my guess is that we might squeak in.” Honey acknowledges that the latest forecast isn't as good for Mike Sanderson's Volvo Ocean Race winner as it was earlier in the week. “It is probably a little better now for the 100-footers. We'd like to see 30 knots reaching all the way there or really rough conditions.” As Mark Richards says, this year's Rolex Sydney Hobart will prove extremely tactical. Sailing upwind during the first day competitors will have to tack upwind and have the choice of going inshore or offshore. Offshore the present forecast indicates there will be more wind and more favourable current driving them south, but also more current to slap into the counter swell from the south generating a horrible seaway. Inshore, the seas will be flatter and there will be less wind but there may be the opportunity to pick up a beneficial local land breeze. The choice of when to tack will be absolutely crucial, as Ichi Ban navigator Will Oxley explains it: “it is a starboard tack-biased race course but if you came out of here and went straight away on starboard then you are forever getting more and more offshore. There will be an opportunity to come back in on the first afternoon but the challenge is always when you do that.” Not welcoming the ever-decreasing forecast are the British forces that make up the crew on board Adventure. This 67ft long, 50 ton, massively constructed steel yacht originally sailed around the world, westabout against the prevailing wind, in the Global Challenge and her hardy crew were hoping for conditions others might consider “boat breaking”. As skipper Major Charles Roberts says: “We are one of the few boats that wants strong upwind conditions - 50 knots upwind with a fairly big swell that will stop all the small boats is what we need - I know Mike Sanderson has said he needs strong winds to stop the big boats, but I think we need stronger winds than him.” International Press Information: Key Partners (KPMS) Susan Maffei Plowden Ph: + 1 401 855 0234 suma@regattanews.com www.regattanews.com www.kpms.com Copyright © 1996-2006 - SEGEL.DE