08.12.2004
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DAY 11 MEDIA RELEASE: NO PLAIN SAILING IN THE SOUTH ATLANTIC...
KEY DATA DAY 10 1510 GMT: 14 hours 11 minutes ahead of Joyon (data communicated by Thrane MiniC via BT Business Broadband)
Lat/Long: 09 27 S / 030 42 W (567 miles south Equator / 265 E Recife)
Average Boat speed: 17.36 knots (heading S by W)
True Wind speed: 15.2 knots (direction ESE)
Distance sailed so far: 4011 miles
Update based on data recorded at 1510 GMT...check http://www.teamellen.com for the latest data updated hourly...
OMEGA: Official timekeeper for Ellen MacArthur
IN BRIEF:
* WEATHER PICTURE IN THE SOUTH ATLANTIC IS NOT LOOKING SO PRETTY..."We may have to make a very rash decision and literally head due south to get down into the Southern Ocean..."
* B&Q BUILDING A GOOD 14+ HOUR LEAD ON JOYON'S TIME but that could easily turn into a major deficit by early next week...
* JOYON HAD IT GOOD IN THE SOUTH..."Francis had a great time down here, you just have to look at his speeds of 16, 17, 18 knot averages..."
* OPPORTUNITY TO BANK SLEEP IN CURRENT Stable CONDITIONS..."I'm trying to rest as much as possible but it's very hard when it's so hot and even in the cuddy it's pretty airless..."
* Stable TRADE WINDS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT and are due to back NE over next couple of days. By the weekend, B&Q will feel the effects of the light NW breeze forecasted with the weak low further down the track, and then headwinds...
http://www.teamellen.com
IN DETAIL:
The evolving weather situation in the South Atlantic looks likely to hamper B&Q's progress, forcing Ellen to sail a more southerly course instead of the favoured south-east course on the direct route. Currently sailing in good 15 knot Trade Winds which is keeping B&Q ahead of the record after 4000 miles, things look set to change in the next 36-48 hours as the winds back to the north-west with a depression forming off the Brazilian coast. Unfortunately, the low is not as strong as forecast and will not provide Ellen with a fast 'corridor' to the Southern Ocean that she was hoping for: "The depression is going to move east and we're not going to be able to stay with it. It will probably disappear into the high pressure system [St Helena High], if we try and follow that low we are also going to get eaten by the high pressure. We need to keep the wind with us for as long as we possibly can, but then we may have to make a very rash decision and literally head due south to get down into the Southern Ocean. It's absolutely what you don't want to do, but looking at the scale of things I think it's probably the safest option we have."
This route will dramatically cut into Ellen's lead on the record holder, even to the point of it becoming a deficit. Forced to go behind the weak cold front, this will put B&Q into headwinds by the weekend as Ellen desperately tries to get south to hook into the new breeze from a north-westerly direction early next week, to propel her eastwards towards the Cape of Good Hope. It will be a tough period requiring many energy-sapping sail changes: "I am trying to sleep as much as I can, trying to bank as much energy as possible, so that when it actually happens we're ready to attack and we can do our best to get down there as soon as possible. It is going to be incredibly taxing and let's just hope that the conditions after Cape of Good Hope are stable enough to get a little bit of sleep at some stage."
In comparison, Francis Joyon made his move to the east at around 23 degrees south finding a good corridor that swept IDEC down towards the Cape of Good Hope and the Southern Ocean: "Francis had a great time down here, you just have to look at his speeds of 16, 17, 18 knot averages on the way down into the Southern Ocean. So he had it pretty good, he didn't seem to have any major slow ups on the way down. We know we've got worse conditions than Francis and we're just going to have to do the best we can with them."
The stable conditions may provide MacArthur with an opportunity to catch up on some sleep but there is a downside: "It's so hot and even in the cuddy it's pretty airless and you sleep for half an hour and you wake up with a sore throat..." B&Q averaging around 15+ knots on port gybe with full index and Solent, may be generating some much needed breeze over the deck but there is also a fair bit of salt water too: "We're reaching so there is a lot of spray about which means that the whole cockpit is just encrusted with salt."
EXCERPTS FROM ELLEN AUDIO 1200 GMT :
courtesy of Geolink/Iridium
To listen to the full audio http://www.ocftp2.com/audio/ellen/em081204a_uk_e.mp3
Your stress levels must be pretty high - but do you have moments when things feel good out there?
I'm trying to rest as much as possible - it's very hard when it's so hot and even in the cuddy it's pretty airless and you sleep for half an hour and you wake up with a sore throat. It's just so hot, it's horrible. But I'm trying to sleep as much as I possibly can and check the boat over obviously. But it's not very nice on board at the moment, we're reaching so there is a lot of spray about which means that the whole cockpit is just encrusted with salt and every time you go out you get soaked so you too get covered in salt! It's pretty
miserable conditions, it's much nicer going down wind in the Trades as we did on the way down to the Equator, wheras when you come out you're more upwind which is much less pleasant.
So what are the positives?
I guess the nice thing at the moment is that we've got a pretty steady flow of wind from the east, though it's quite changeable, it's pretty reliable in its direction and its force so there is not a lot you can you do but put the sails up that we have now, which is the indexsail and the Solent, and try and trim the sails as best as you possible can, focus on a point you are trying to get to and do you're absolute best to get there as fast as possible. That's how I'm thinking at the moment and that's what we're working towards...at the same time getting as much sleep as you can that's the objective really.
WEATHER ANALYSIS FROM COMMANDERS' WEATHER:
From: Commanders' Weather Corp 0600UTC Wednesday, December 8, 2004
Trade winds continue to be very consistent, indexly 110-140 and wind speeds of 12-18 kts. There may be a bit more wind speed over the next 12-18 hours, but wind speeds will return to the 12-18 kt range during Wednesday night. Wind directions will slowly back over the next 2 days and will become NE on Friday.
Beyond Friday, the weather pattern will become much more complicated as a cold front stalls and weakens along Ellen's route. There will be very light NW and WNW north of the stalled front and much strong easterlies south of the front.
The current strategy is ride the NW winds on the north side of a weak low, along the stalled front Saturday, and then head south to set up for the next low pressure system. Hopefully this low will send us into the westerlies south of 40S.
Routing:
1) No change, as best we can to the S and try to hit a gate near 10S/30-31W next gate 15S/29-31W
2) Once we start sailing SE on the backing wind, better to be further S
than further E
3) We will commit hard south probably late Saturday/early Sunday to get south of front and head for the NW winds from strong low in the south central Atlantic next Tuesday.
Wind directions are TRUE, wind speed in kts, time is UTC
Wed, Dec 8
15: 090-110/14-18
18: 080-110/14-18
Weather - Wed thru Fri, fair to partly cloudy.
Note wind speeds may touch 20 knots or so through Wednesday evening
Thu, Dec 9
00: 070-090/14-18
06: 070-100/13-17
12: 070-090/13-17, near 14 30S/30 10W - breeze likely to be a little stronger E, lighter W
18: 060-080/13-17
http://www.commandersweather.com
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