IN BRIEF:
* B&Q LOSING TIME AS ELLEN HOLDS BACK WAITING FOR WINDS TO INCREASE SUDDENLY IN THE COLD FRONT... B&Q loses 6 hours of the time gained on the record in less than 3 hours of real time on the race course...
* STRESS OF RACING AGAINST THE CLOCK IS A CONSTANT 24/7 PRESSURE and light winds from an unfavourable direction are MacArthur's worst enemy...
* NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE CROZET ISLANDS? THE NEXT DILEMMA...785 miles to the east of B&Q, Ellen's choice is less wind in the north, more wind in the south but dangerously rough seas...
* LONG-TERM SITUATION IS PRECARIOUS... A patch of lighter winds to be negotiated then big 50-60 knot depression on the cards for Christmas...
To listen to Ellen's audio, courtesy of Geolink/Iridium, click here http://www.ocftp2.com/audio/ellen/em191204a_uk_e.mp3
IN DETAIL:
Ellen MacArthur is starting to lose hours of her hard-fought advantage as she waits for the cold front to catch her bringing stronger winds. Her lead has dropped from almost 24 hours to just 17 hours and 48 minutes at 1410 GMT - losing 6 hours of her time advantage over Joyon's record in less than 3 hours out on the race course. "I have been pulling my hair out! For 7 hours we have been sailing under-powered, waiting for the cold front, that has stronger winds, to arrive. I daren't put up more sail because I know the wind is going to pump soon but it means slow speed and my lead on Joyon is melting away." B&Q is making less than 14 knots of boat speed, as wind speed hovers around the 16 knot mark.
The stress of racing against the clock is unrelentless for MacArthur. Strong conditions can bring adrenalin-pumping and energy-sapping work on deck but, equally, lighter breeze piles on the stress of keeping the 75-foot moving as fast as possible combined with the frustration of losing time on the clock. In particular, if Ellen has too much sail up when the wind hits, then it could be highly dangerous, but each sail change takes enormous effort so when she knows big breeze is coming sometimes it pays to sail slower and wait...but how long do you wait. There is no balance - it is 100% pressure 24/7.
"Right now, we're north-west of Marion Island, we're about 250 miles north of the Antarctic convergence and we're heading just north of east at the moment. The seas are a lot flatter than they have been but they are due to build again towards this evening and stronger winds tomorrow so it is going to get fairly hairy again fairly soon, so now is a good time to rest. I did manage to get into my bunk on three occasions last night which was quite special."
The Crozet Islands lay a further 785 miles to the east of B&Q. The 20 small mountainous islands of Crozet come under French territory and are uninhabited except for scientific personnel and penguins. Home to seals, King Penguins and other birds, Crozet is designated a national conservation area. The mostly barren island is subject to low temperatures and long winters. The island climate is mitigated somewhat by maritime influences. The inland plateaus are barren and rocky. Steep cliffs drop to sea level on the coasts. First landing was in 1772, with the first settlers, a group of sealers, arriving in 1804. MacArthur will have little time to reflect on their history, as she considers her options to pass these islands to the north or south. North of 45 degrees south, the wind starts to run out and in the south, the winds may be stronger but the seas will be dangerously rough [see Commanders' weather analysis below].
Beyond the Crozet Islands other concerns will come into play including a patch of lighter winds: "The weather situation ahead does not look fantastic with a light area of winds coming up which we're going to have to try and negotiate around and if we lose more than a few hours it would not surprise me whatsoever..." But the biggest concern for MacArthur is the development of a huge depression forming to the east of the Kerguelen Islands - a further 700 miles beyond the Crozet Islands: "I'm really worried about a big depression forming in the future on our track that I don't think we will be able to avoid. It's still 6 days away just east of Kerguelen, but at the moment I don't know if there is a way around it. We have to avoid the 50 to 60 knot winds at all costs, even if we actually stop..." Christmas is in danger of being cancelled on board B&Q if MacArthur has to brave storm-force conditions...
WEATHER ANALYSIS FROM COMMANDERS' WEATHER 0600 GMT:
From: Commanders' Weather Corp 0600UTC Sunday, December 19, 2004
Ellen will make good speed eastward today on increasing NW wind ahead of approaching low pressure trough. But winds will be building to 30-40 kts again and seas increasing to 18-25 feet with peak seas over 30 feet possible late in the day and at night. This will be a rough period similar to late Friday/Friday night when Ellen reported seas up to 40 feet.
Expect the trough to push around 21 utc Mon with winds shifting to WSW and diminishing some. But the sea conditions may actually deteriorate further as huge 30-40 foot WSW swells further to her W and SW get closer. Ellen will likely be forced south of 45s with the WSW breeze later Monday.
Monday, Ellen will have to decide whether to track south or north of the
Crozet Islands. There will be better wind but huge seas south of the Island. North of the Island, especially north of 45s, winds will be much lighter but sea conditions more tolerable.
Wind directions are TRUE, wind speed in kts, time is UTC
Sun, Dec 19
15:00 290-310/22-30
18:00 310-280/25-35 increasing chance of showers/squalls
21:00 280-250/20-30 front passes - wind may be more variable in speed and backs
Mostly cloudy. Few showers/squalls developing indexly after 18utz.
Seas 12-15 ft will build to 18-25 feet overnight
Mon, Dec 20
- Wind stronger to the S and lighter to the N
00:00 260-240/25-35 - quick hitting squalls
06:00 230-250/25-35 - stronger wind to the S, lighter N
12:00 250-270/20-30 near 45 10s/42 50e
18:00 260-280/20-30
Showers and squalls with the cold front then varying cloudiness with a few squally showers scattered about. Seas 18-25 ft with peak seas to 30 feet. Bigger seas likely off to the S and SW of you
Tues, Dec 21 - substantially lighter wind N of 44-45s
00:00 270-290/20-25 stronger wind S, lighter N
06:00 280-300/18-24
12:00 280-300/15-22 near 45 10s/52e
18: 00290-310/15-20 stronger wind to the S, lighter N
Variable cloudiness
Seas indexly 15-20 ft, beginning to improve
http://www.commandersweather.com
PARTNER OF THE DAY : OYS
Official rigging and hydraulics supplier to Ellen and the Offshore Challenges Sailing Team
Click here for further information on Sailing Speed Records http://www.sailspeedrecords.com and here for information on Ellen's campaign http://www.teamellen.com
For further information, please contact Offshore Challenges:
Lou Newlands or Lucy Harwood
T: +44 (0)870 063 0210
E: lou@offshorechallenges.com or lucy@offshorechallenges.com
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