24.12.2004
Trimaran title sponsor B&Q is the biggest DIY retailer in Europe and third biggest in the world. http://www.diy.com
DAY 27: ELLEN AND B&Q IN SURVIVAL MODE FOR CHRISTMAS...
KEY DATA DAY 26 0710 GMT: 3 hours 37 minutes ahead of Joyon
OMEGA: Official timekeeper for Ellen MacArthur
Lat/Long: 42 53 S / 078 19 E (523 miles NE Kerguelen Is / 1820 miles E Cape Leeuwin - south-west tip of Australia)
Average Boat speed: 14.70 knots (heading ENE)
True Wind speed: 18.5 knots (direction NW)
Sea temperature: 12.3 degrees C
Distance sailed so far: 10,512 miles at an average speed of 16.9 knots
(data communicated by Thrane MiniC via BT Business Broadband)
Update based on data recorded 0710 GMT...check http://www.teamellen.com for the latest data updated hourly
IN BRIEF:
* FAST NIGHT BUT B&Q LEAD SEVERELY REDUCED... B&Q raced along at speeds in excess of 20 knots at times during the night, and clocked up 416 miles in the last 24 hours, but this has not prevented the advantage over Joyon being dramatically reduced as Ellen pushes B&Q north-east to position herself for the Christmas Day storm that is approaching from behind. Crossing Joyon's track, for the first time on this Southern Ocean stretch, B&Q is now 120 miles north of Joyon and Ellen's lead of 15 hours yesterday morning, has all but disappeared to just 3 hours 37 minutes this morning. But that is of little concern to Ellen right now, as the biggest worry is getting to the north putting as much distance between herself and the huge depression in the south that is generating the gale to storm force conditions for tonight and tomorrow...
* CAUGHT BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD PLACE ON CHRISTMAS DAY... As Ellen said two days ago "it is going to hit us, we can't get away from this one.." and as the storm approaches that much is now certain. Gale-force conditions are forecast bringing 35-45 knots of wing [Force 8], gusting in excess of 50 knots [Force 9-10] generating mountainous seas - it will be self-preservation both for Ellen and B&Q. The greatest concern is that the wind will be blowing from a northerly direction as Ellen tries to head east keeping in front of the storm. The two effects of this is that, firstly, the existing westerly swell will mix with the new northerly swell creating a dangerous mogul field of huge waves and, secondly, with the wind from the north, Ellen cannot run downwind which would decrease apparent wind angle [and thefore the effective wind strength] and surf down the northerly swell as this would take her south closer and closer to the centre of the depression and even more wind and even bigger seas. Ellen will be forced to try and sail on a reach, 90 degrees true wind angle, which is very powered-up and one of the most dangerous points of sail for a multihull as they are supercharged at this angle, and at increased risk of 'nose-diving'...
* STRONGEST WIND EXPECTED CHRISTMAS DAY between 35-45 knots, gusting 50 knots as north-westerly breeze starts to build in strength tonight. Ellen will try and stay ahead of the storm for as long as possible but Commanders' Weather now believe that the cold front will pass over B&Q on Christmas Day evening, exactly what Ellen didn't want to happen: "If we're caught up by the front we will have 50 knots plus, but then very little wind behind it and very rough seas, that is absolutely the worst..."
* MESSAGES FLOODING IN FOR ELLEN BY THE MINUTE... Over 6,000 messages have been received at B&Q's Mission Control in Cowes, arriving by the minute in the build up to Christmas - thanks to everyone and keep them coming, as it means a lot to Ellen to have this support. A selection of messages are sent on every day to Ellen and to see the latest messages click on 'Read Emails' icon on the home page of http://www.teamellen.com or click here to direct to the page [all writers of the messages on display agreed to their publication] http://www.teamellen.com/ellen.asp?artid=1709
* UPDATES OVER CHRISTMAS: No emails, but Ellen's website will be updated on both Christmas Day and Boxing Day so you can check Ellen's progress at http://www.teamellen.com. [MEDIA NOTE: a press update will be sent by email by 1200 GMT on both Christmas Day and Boxing Day].
* ELLEN'S OC SAILING TEAM MATE UPDATE: Nick Moloney on Skandia holds 7th place in the Vendee Globe, but Sebastien Josse, VMI, hit 15m growler yesterday sustaining some damage but continuing with race. This icefield to the south east of NZ will be a concern for Ellen as well. http://www.nickmoloney.com
http://www.teamellen.com
WEATHER ANALYSIS FROM COMMANDERS' WEATHER 0600 GMT:
Ellen continues to move quickly to the ENE and E and that is the objective today. She will be positioning herself to be better able to handle a strong cold front that will be approaching Christmas day. NW to NNW flow will slowly clock and increase during the course of Friday. As the wind clocks, it will steer Ellen more to the east and then a little south of east Friday night and during Christmas day.
Deep low pressure far to the south will have a cold front coming east and this front will reach Ellen on Christmas day. Winds will become strong ahead of the front Friday night and into Saturday. There will be increasing shower and squall activity ahead of the front. The strongest winds likely to occur between 0600utc Sat and 1800utc Saturday. A period of 35-45 kts is likely with some gusts over 50 kts. Stronger winds will be the further south, so that is one reason we have headed more ENE. This will also temper the sea-state some, although she will still have to deal with very large seas later Christmas Eve night and Christmas day.
We will try and stay ahead of the front as long as possible. Low pressure will develop along the front Sat night and head SSE. Right now, it appears the front will overtake Ellen between 1800utc Saturday and 21utc Saturday. We will then try and proceed eastward before wind drops off and stay east of that low which will come close to Ellen on Sunday. Very light winds will occur Sunday near the low and west of the front while strong NNW winds to the east. Goal will be try and get back into those stronger NNW winds east of the front.
Routing: Same priorities - get some northing and get E as quickly as
possible during the next several hours
1) If we go N of 42 30-43S, that is okay
2) as wind clocks more and increases later Fri, a more E and ESE course
3) do your best course to take care of you and the boat when the stronger wind develops
Wind forecasts
Wind directions are TRUE, wind speed in kts, time is UTC
Fri, Dec 24
09: 330-350/22-28 - wind stronger to the S and W, lighter to the N and E
12: 330-350/22-30, near 42 50s/80 15e - most of our northing should be in
around now - clocking wind
18: 340-360/22-32
Partly cloudy. Increasing threat of showers during the night. Seas becoming confused overnight. Seas 8-12 ft will build to 10-15 feet
Sat, Dec 25
00: 340-360/24-34
06: 340-010/28-35, gusts to 40-45
12: 360-330/35-45, squalls to 50-55, near 43 30s/90e
18: 340-300/40-30, front very close, probably just E of the cold front-
wind stronger to the S and E
Mostly cloudy with showers/squalls. Some heavy squalls with gusts to over 50 kts. Seas very rough - building to 25 ft+ and probably coming from both the N and W
http://www.commandersweather.com
PARTNER OF THE DAY : THRANE & THRANE
Official supplier of satelite transmission equipment to Ellen and the Offshore Challenges Sailing Team
Click here for further information on Sailing Speed Records http://www.sailspeedrecords.com and here for information on Ellen's campaign http://www.teamellen.com
For further information, please contact Offshore Challenges:
Lou Newlands or Lucy Harwood
T: +44 (0)870 063 0210
E: lou@offshorechallenges.com or lucy@offshorechallenges.com
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