IN BRIEF:
* PUNISHING STORM OF CHRISTMAS DAY RECEDES OVERNIGHT BUT NOW SAILING BACK INTO THE SAME STORM... B&Q fell out of the back of the big frontal system in the night and now there is a whole lot more to come! As the winds decreased in the night, this piled on the pressure for MacArthur to keep B&Q moving as fast as she could - forcing constant sail changes to go up a gear in speed. "I'm exhausted really, had a bit of sleep in the cuddy in my oilskins, probably about 45 minutes last night. I had to force breakfast down but just had the kettle on for next freeze dried meal... I've done 12 sail changes in 12 hours, from 3 reefs and storm jib to full index and genoa." Now the frontal system that passed over her by the end of yesterday has stalled ahead and B&Q is sailing back into the same storm: "Now back all the way down to 2 reefs and staysail. More to do yet, as we are now right on the back of the first front and crossing again into the 40 knot plus northerlies..."
* CHRISTMAS BOX ON HOLD UNTIL NEW YEAR... Wind speeds are already up to 30+ knots as Ellen starts feeling the effects of the big cold front that she has caught up with again. Winds expected to increase to 35-40 knots, gusting 45 knots, later today. "I've got a few days of this kind of weather and I'm not even going to think about opening my Christmas Box until we are through the worst of this and I can get some decent sleep...probably New Year then!" Ellen will remember this Christmas for a long time to come as perhaps the most hazardous of her solo Christmas' in recent years: "That was the third Christmas I've spent alone! Once in New Zealand just before the launch of Kingfisher when I went camping in the bush on my own, I think I wanted to see what it was like in preparation for the Vendée! Then the Vendée which compared to this was nothing and now this one - all very different.. But think this one is going to stick in my mind for a long time to come."
* SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SURFING... B&Q heading for Cape Leeuwin, over 1100 miles to her east, on the south-west tip of Australia - the country of surfers and that is exactly what B&Q has been doing to as Ellen explains: "Its been like a surfer riding a wave for the past 36 hours...he sees it approaching and he goes as fast as he can to stay in front, rides its full on, breaking water all around, actually drops out the back but then the waves slows down and he manages to paddle so hard he gets back on the wave and ride it once again. Only its not a very 'clean' wave!"
* B&Q CONTINUES TO BUILD ON ADVANTAGE OVER JOYON... Now 13 hours and 47 minutes ahead this morning at 0810 GMT, Ellen is not letting go easily of her lead over the current record-holder, Francis Joyon. B&Q was at risk of falling behind his time yesterday, for the first time since Day 7 of her attempt, as MacArthur's lead decreased to just two hours. B&Q is now, once again, south of his historical track - the further south, the shorter the course - but on Christmas Eve, B&Q was pushed north of IDEC's track for the first time on this Southern Ocean leg which is why the time penalty was so great. Joyon was forced to take a more north-easterly track towards Australia and now as B&Q continues to head on a south-easterly track, she is building on her lead as each hour passes...
WEATHER ANALYSIS FROM COMMANDERS' WEATHER 0600 GMT:
From: Commanders' Weather Corp 0600UTC Sunday, December 26, 2004
Summary:
1) Looks as though you are now ahead of the front with the stronger NW breeze, but can't be fooled, as the front is not far to your W and SW.
a) Breeze could still drop into the 20-25 knot range over the next 2-3 hrs
b) East heading is good, but would not go too much south of east - winds lighter to the south, as
c) The front is aligned NW to SE over the region
2) But the quicker you get east, the more likely you will see the breeze continue to rise, and will likely become quite rough again after 12 utc
3) Winds most likely increasing up to 30-35 knots by 18 utc and may be gusts to 40-45 knots into Tue.
4) With the front to the west and high pressure to the east (south of Australia), think you will continue with a strong/gusty NW-N wind flow over the next couple days.
a) Winds speeds may avg in the 25-35 knot range into Wed,
b) Then begins to settle down some further to the east on Thu.
c) You should have favorable wind angles, but seas may be on the rougher side
5) The next front is still projected to affect you later in the week, most likely on Friday
6) If latest guidance is correct, then winds would shift into the SW or S-SW behind the front later Fri or early Sat.
Routing:
1) With the stronger NW breeze, suggest getting east as you as much possible, keeping boat speeds as high as you can.
a) don't want to head too much S of E, as you have better chance of lighter winds to the south.
Wind forecasts
Wind directions are TRUE, wind speed in kts, time is UTC
Sun, Dec 26 - much lighter breeze not far to the W and SW closer to the
front
09: 310-340/24-32
12: 310-340/24-32, gusts to 40, near 42 40S/99 45E - stronger wind just to the NE
18: 320-350/30-35, gusts 40-45
Low clouds with periods of rain and may be some squalls with the stronger breeze after 12 utc. Seas becoming rougher again up to 15-20 ft+
Mon, Dec 27
00: 320-350/25-35, gusts 40-45 - much lighter wind to the W
06: 320-350/25-35, gusts 40-45
12: 330-360/22-32, near 43 45S/110 E
18: 330-350/22-30, gusts 35
Considerable clouds with passing showers/squalls. Breeze likely unstable/shifty with showers passing thru. Seas building to 15-22 ft, more wind wave chop
Click here for further information on Sailing Speed Records http://www.sailspeedrecords.com and here for information on Ellen's campaign http://www.teamellen.com
For further information, please contact Offshore Challenges:
Lou Newlands or Lucy Harwood
T: +44 (0)870 063 0210
E: lou@offshorechallenges.com or lucy@offshorechallenges.com
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