05.01.2005
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DAY 39 MEDIA RELEASE: MACARTHUR EXTENDS ADVANTAGE TO OVER THREE DAYS...
KEY DATA DAY 39 1510 GMT: 3 days 1 hour 58 minutes [8.78% of time reindexing] ahead of Joyon
OMEGA: Official timekeeper for Ellen MacArthur
Lat/Long: 52 28 S / 146 38 W (1285 miles SSE Chatham Is / 2825 miles W Cape Horn)
Average Boat speed: 14.40 knots (heading NE)
True Wind speed: 15.4 knots (direction W)
Sea temperature: 8.6 degrees C
Distance sailed so far: 16,054 miles at an average speed of 17.5 knots
(data communicated by Thrane MiniC via BT Business Broadband)
Update based on data recorded 1510 GMT...check http://www.teamellen.com for the latest data updated hourly
IN BRIEF:
* SHIFT IN THE WIND RELEASES MACARTHUR FROM TORMENT OF PAST FEW DAYS as winds shift and stabilise in the west.
* B&Q EXCEEDS 3 DAY ADVANTAGE OVER JOYON for the first time on this record attempt.
* MACARTHUR DESPERATELY NEEDS TO RECUPERATE and recover from this period having had little to no sleep.
* NEXT STORM BREWING AND FORECAST TO HIT BY END OF THE WEEK bringing 45 knot winds and rough seas.
IN DETAIL:
The three days and two nights of unforgiving and extremely changeable conditions look like they are coming to an end this afternoon for Ellen MacArthur on B&Q: "We've just gybed so hoping life will get easier...really hoping the conditions will stabilise. This has been worse than anything I've had in the Vendée...three days and two nights of this - just horrendous. I've got to get some sleep soon." Very few words to describe what has been a torrid period for MacArthur on day 39 of her solo, round the world record attempt. The SSW-SW airflow of the Pacific Ocean has been made unstable because of a depression to the north of B&Q: "The depression has been forming to the north and its just all the stuff that's trying to help form it, basically." This process has produced the unstable conditions that have been delivering wind speeds from 12 knots to 48 knots and variations in direction by as much as 50 degrees.
The wind speed averages since this morning, tell the story - 0800 GMT 14.1 knots, 0900 28.4 knots, 1200 15 knots, 1300 9.7 knots, 1500 15.4 knots and these are averages that do not represent the extremeties of the wind speed. However, since 1400 GMT the wind speeds seem to be levelling out as the wind clocks to the right and into the west, now coming from 284 degrees. The permanence of the shifting breeze, prompted MacArthur to gybe B&Q back on to port at around 1330 GMT today, to head slightly north of east in preparation for the next weather system on its way by the end of the week. For now, the breeze is expected to veer futher into the north-west and will, hopefully, provide 24-36 hours of favourable conditions allowing MacArthur to recuperate. Having sailed 16,054 miles at an average speed of 17.5 knots, there is now less than 10,000 miles to go, but this is a theoretical distance and Ellen will sail many more miles as she manoeuvres B&Q to stay with the favourable weather along the course.
There is at least some compensation to all the stress of the last few days, as MacArthur's advantage over Joyon's time has exceeded three days [standing at 3 days, 1 hour and 58 minutes at 1510 GMT] for the first time on her solo attempt. This represents 8.78% of the time reindexing for MacArthur to break Joyon's 72 day, 22 hour and 54 minute world solo speed record. MacArthur's lead dipped below the two-day mark in the aftermath of the Christmas storms but since the 29th December has reindexed over two days and has now passed the 3 day barrier with less than 3000 miles to go to Cape Horn. But this margin will come under threat in the next few days as MacArthur faces another gale by Friday and she will be racing eastwards to prevent the storm from over-taking her, leaving B&Q wallowing in the centre which is exactly what happened to Francis Joyon on day 39 of his record attempt. By day 42 he was back up to speed and started clocking up 500+ miles 24-hour runs approaching Cape Horn.
Emails for Ellen continue to arrive by the minute. Ellen may be struggling to deal with the conditions and whenever that's the case, the emails of support just increase! Over 17,000 emails have been received so far and the knowledge of everyone's support is a huge motivation for Ellen: "If they watch the webcam and see me there - there's a good chance I am reading their mail! It's just fantastic to see these emails coming in from all over the world, right now, it makes a big difference to me knowing that support is there."
To read the latest emails, go to the home page of http://www.teamellen.com and click on the Read Emails icon or click here http://www.teamellen.com/ellen.asp?artid=1709. You can send Ellen an email via the home page and Email Ellen icon or click here,
http://www.teamellen.com/emailellen.asp?lang=en
ELLEN CALL 5.1.05 0700 GMT:
"I have never sailed in conditions like this before - not for this long. You know, 24 hours of changeable winds are one thing but when its for three and a half days, its unbelieavable. I have never, ever seen anything like this - never, ever, never. Every hour...it's so hard and it's so strong, I mean, 44 knots earlier, ****. I had one reef in the index and the Solent and I thought we were going over. Right now, its averaging around 18 knots and you could be sailing quite nicely in 18 knots of breeze but boat speed average, right now, is 13 knots because we just can't sail properly because the next cloud's going to come and we can't put enough sail up. I know Joyon had a shit-fight at the moment but its just hard to switch off, its hard to close your eyes, you can't sleep. Whenever the breeze goes light you have to keep the boat up and we're now heading 155 degrees and the waves are hitting the side of the boat, the boat feels like she's about to shake her teeth out... I mean, you just can't win... You've either got 35 knots or 15... When I spoke to you last time, we had 38 knots and an inch and a half of hail in the boat - its all over the boat, in the sails, the cockpit is like a skidpan... The depression has been forming to the north and its just all the stuff that's trying to help form it, basically. Its just so painful..."
WEATHER ANALYSIS FROM COMMANDERS' WEATHER 0600 GMT:
From: Commanders' Weather Corp 0600UTC Wednesday, January 5, 2005
Summary:
2) Our goal on port will be 50-51S for several reasons
a) 1st, there will be more wind speed late Wed/early Thu further N
b) wind directions will be further right, so we will be able to start sailing to the E earlier with the favorable NW wind - once we get this breeze, we need as much speed to the east as possible!
c) most importantly, we will have another NNW gale for 12-18 hrs and we will need the northing. This is critical. Better to be a little N than S prior to the arrival of the NNW gales as we will probably use all of the northing
3) There will be a package of light NW winds developing - at 00UTC Thu they
will be near 144-147W. This should be west of us and the lightest of the light winds will be near 52-54S
4) After the patch of light winds passes to the S and SE of us, the wind speeds will start to increase by 18UTC Thu
a) could be in NW gales by 00UTC Fri, but if we are quick on port, we could out run this breeze for a few extra hrs
b) regardless, we will see a 12-18 hr period of NNW gales on Fri\
c) the barometer will fall rapidly as this storm approaches as well!
5) The low will be moving SE while we sail ESE - I think the cold front will weaken and stall west of us on Sat
a) being in the middle of a dying cold front will not be a good experience, so we want to be E of 120W by 1200UTC Sat
b) the NNW gales will diminish and back as the cold front approaches. It will be important to not go south of 55S on Sat/Sun - winds will be very light and seas very rough south of 55S on Sat and probably Sun as well! We will probably hold port for a little longer than is comfortable to make certain everything is okay south of 55S
6) Low will form on the dying cold front over the weekend
a) winds will be light and seas rough/confused in the middle of the low - we MUST not go there!
b) low will be near 56-57S/94-97W by 1200UTC Sat
c) we will hold port as the low passes and then gybe as it passes by and sail into the SW winds following the low pressure area
7) Looks like we take SW winds into Cape Horn next Wed
Wind forecasts
Wind directions are TRUE, wind speed in kts, time is UTC
Wed, Jan 5
09: 250-280/18-24
12: 260-290/18-24, near 52 45s/146 30w
18: 270-300/22-28, winds much lighter to the S and W
Partly to mostly cloudy - any showers during the next several hrs will have a very brief squall, but largest problem may be the lack of wind speed in the middle of and immediately behind the shower.
Thu, Jan 6
00: 280-310/22-28, could touch 30 kts at times north of 51S between 18 and
00UTC
06: 290-320/17-23 - as fast as possible to the ENE and E
12: 320-350/20-26, nr 50s/135 30w - wind increasing - much stronger wind to the W, lighter E
18: 330-350/25-35 - stronger wind W, lighter E - as fast as you can to the ESE.
WPartly to mostly cloudy. Seas 10-15 feet, but becoming mixed with SW swell and a developing NW sea state
http://www.commandersweather.com
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