10.01.2005
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DAY 44 MEDIA RELEASE : RELEASE FROM SOUTHERN OCEAN IS NOT STRAIGHTFORWARD...
KEY DATA DAY 43 1510 GMT:
4 days 22 hours 53 minutes [16.58% of time reindexing] ahead of Joyon
OMEGA: Official timekeeper for Ellen MacArthur
Lat/Long: 54 23 S / 086 05 W (640 miles W Cape Horn)
Average Boat speed: 18.70 knots (heading E)
True Wind speed: 20.8 knots (direction WSW)
Sea temperature: 7.9 degrees C
Distance sailed so far: 18,362 miles at an average speed of 17.7 knots
(data communicated by Thrane MiniC via BT Business Broadband)
Update based on data recorded 1510 GMT...check home page http://www.teamellen.com for the latest data updated hourly
IN BRIEF:
* THE FAVOURABLE NW CONDITIONS OF YESTERDAY ARE A THING OF THE PAST as MacArthur struggles in more unstable W-WSW breeze forcing a series of endless and energy-sapping sail changes on board B&Q.
* UNABLE TO SAIL B&Q AT HER FULL POTENTIAL in the fluctuating breeze impacts on consistency of boat speeds and inevitably her time advantage has begun to slip but still indextaining a 4 day, 22 hour and 53 minute 'comfort zone'.
* APPROACH TO CAPE HORN NOT STRAIGHTFORWARD and passing this legendary cape is not expected to be easy with 35-40 knots and rough seas squeezing through the bottleneck between the Horn and Antarctica.
IN DETAIL:
It seemed inevitable that the favourable north-westerly conditions would not last as Ellen MacArthur negotiates the final stages of the Southern Ocean - a reminder that in the Southern Ocean, any respite is short-lived. As a trough passed over B&Q, the breeze shifted into the west then WSW and, as such, started a chain of unstable conditions - predominantly in wind strength but also in direction too. The shifting wind forced MacArthur to gybe B&Q onto starboard earlier than anticipated at around midnight last night, and as she headed slightly south of east the wind fluctuated between 18-27 knots. This trend has continued to a lesser extent throughout today - ranging from an average of 18-23 knots of breeze indexly from a WSW direction - although consistency in boat speeds have wavered between 14 knots to 21 knots, as MacArthur struggles to find the right sail combination to keep B&Q moving to her potential: "I've got one reef in the index and a genoa at the moment and ideally we'd probably have full index and genoa. But with a breeze up to 26 knots sometimes I don't really want to risk the full index. So I'll tell you what happens when it starts to increase... I was expecting it to increase faster than it has. It's supposed to get more unstable as the breeze switches more and more into the south-west so let's see how things evolve." These conditions, and MacArthur's reluctance to not see B&Q sailing at 100% of her potential, means a round of endless sail changes: "I have done so many sail changes in the past 24 hours, I am absolutely knackered..." As such, her advantage over the record has slipped slightly, along with any chance of securing a five day lead in the run up to Cape Horn. At 1510 GMT this afternoon, MacArthur's lead stood at 4 days, 22 hours and 53 minutes - 16.58% of the time reindexing for Ellen to break the record.
Cape Horn lies approximately 640 miles to the east and at the moment, MacArthur is able to hold a indexly easterly course straight at the Horn, but is unsure of her arrival in these unstable conditions: "As for an ETA, I've no idea really. I think maybe Wednesday morning, European time, it's hard to say, it all depends on whether this breeze stays or whether it dies again. I'm hoping it's going stay, our heading is great at the moment. Let's just hope we can make it to the Horn without too much hassle." Unfortunately, the crossing of Drakes Passage - the 200-mile wide 'bottleneck' between Cape Horn and Antarctica - is not looking that pleasant: "I think we will have maybe 35 to 40 knots when we get there. It's going to be brutal, not nice, not fun..." But the passing of this legendary cape marks a release from the Southern Ocean back into the South Atlantic that will present another range of challenges. Still with just under 8000 miles on the clock - and that's a best theorectical distance, Ellen will likely sail more - that is the equivalent of three transatlantics or four times round the British Isles!
At 54 19 degrees south this afternoon, Ellen is restricted to how far south she can sail due to the specific ice reports made by Candadian Radarsat, provided to the Vendee Globe organisers that show a high risk of ice below 56 degrees south. It is likely MacArthur will have to manoeuvre B&Q through a couple of gybes to reach Cape Horn at the latitude 55 58 degrees South and longitude of 067 13 degrees West.
WEATHER ANALYSIS FROM COMMANDERS' WEATHER 0600 GMT:
More ice concerns as well as unstable/shifty winds and possible squalls to worry about next few days.
Ellen gybed to starboard and headed SE Sunday night as winds shifted into the west. The goal Monday will be to get into the SW wind on the other side of trough which will be moving eastward thru Ellen probably around 12 utc Monday. Once in the SW wind behind the trough Ellen can head more eastward probably down around 55s.
It is important that she does not get too much further south as some icebergs have been noted on radar not too far south of 56s. In fact she may need to gybe briefly back north again early Tuesday to stay safely north of the ice as winds clock to a more westerly direction.
In addition to the ice threat Ellen will once again have to endure a couple more days of unstable breeze with potential large fluctations in wind speeds. General winds speeds will likely be lighter early Monday but will be increasing from the SW-W into the 25-35 kt range Monday night and Tuesday as she approaches Cape Horn. If all goes well with the series of gybes coming up, still hoping for a
passage around Cape Horn Tuesday night.
Wind forecasts
Wind directions are TRUE, wind speed in kts, time is UTC
Mon, Jan 10 - avg wind speeds will decrease some as you get further south thru 9 utc but wind will continue squally in nature. Need to protect for slight chance sudden squall to 35-40 kts 9 utc-12 utc Mon
09: 275-265/15-25- trough axis very close.
12: 260-240/15-25 near 54 30s/87 w
18: 230-240/20-30, unstable and squally - heading east
Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and squalls more prevalent after 6 utc
Winds could show big swings in speed as low as 15 kts in lulls and gusts to
30-40 kts in squalls. But avg wind speeds will be declining until you get to the SW wind on other side of trough. Seas 15- 20 feet
Tue, Jan 11 - winds continue squally in nature and will tend to slowly build
00: 230-245/20-30
06: 260-270/24-32 winds clock back to W nr 55 30-56s/ 78w - short gybe to port
12: 260-280/25-35 gybe back to starboard 12-15 utc heading ESE
18: 260-280/25-35
Mix of clouds and sun, the frequency of the showers/squalls will be diminishing but still possible. Seas 15-25 feet. Still will have potential for brief squalls to 35-40 kts.
Wed, Jan 12
00: 260-280/25-35 nr 56s/69-70w - gybe to port when you can clear Cape Horn
06: 250-270/25-35
12: 260-280/30-40, near 54s/63 20w
18: 260-230/30-40
Variable cloudiness with some scattered showers. Seas 15-25 feet
http://www.commandersweather.com
PARTNER OF THE DAY : MARLOW ROPES
Official Rope Supplier to Ellen and the Offshore Challenges Sailing Team
Click here for further information on Sailing Speed Records http://www.sailspeedrecords.com and here for information on Ellen's campaign http://www.teamellen.com
For further information, please contact Offshore Challenges:
Lou Newlands or Lucy Harwood
T: +44 (0)870 063 0210
E: lou@offshorechallenges.com or lucy@offshorechallenges.com
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