11.01.2005
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DAY 45 MEDIA RELEASE: LEGENDARY CAPE HORN LIVING UP TO ITS REPUTATION...
KEY DATA DAY 44 1710 GMT:
5 days 2 hours 11 minutes ahead of Joyon [17.79% of time reindexing]
OMEGA: Official timekeeper for Ellen MacArthur
Lat/Long: 56 47 S / 074 02 W (approx 235 miles W Cape Horn)
Average Boat speed: 14.77 knots (heading SE by E)
True Wind speed: 23.0 knots (direction W)
Sea temperature: 7.9 degrees C
Distance sailed so far: 18,800 miles at an average speed of 17.7 knots
(data communicated by Thrane MiniC via BT Business Broadband)
Position data from 1710GMT, other data from 1400GMT http://www.teamellen.com
IN BRIEF:
* LATEST CAPE HORN ETA - BETWEEN 0600-1200 GMT TOMORROW, 235 miles to the east.
* 30-40 KNOTS WESTERLY WIND FORECAST, 40-50 KNOTS IN THE SQUALLS, Cape Horn will be living up to its reputation tomorrow.
* ELLEN ESTIMATES THAT CHANCE OF FINISHING THE TOUR INCREASE TO MAYBE 60% after rounding the Horn and exiting the Southern Ocean, but that the chance of a catastrophic technical failure increase as an exhausted skipper and fatigued boat head up the Atlantic after sailing 18,800 miles of the course.
* JOYON ROUNDED CAPE HORN ON 10.1.04 AFTER 49 days, 2 hours and 21 minutes at 1021 GMT. With a five day lead at this point, MacArthur could set another new solo record this time from Ushant to Cape Horn...
* ONLY A FEW MILES WEST OF ICEBERG SIGHTING reported by the Vendée Globe competitors, as MacArthur heads below 56 degrees south increasing the concerns over ice...
IN DETAIL:
Ellen MacArthur sailing the 75-foot multihull, <>, is potentially only 235 miles from rounding Cape Horn - the legendary final cape of the Southern Ocean and the only real 'turning mark' on the round the world course that releases MacArthur back into the Atlantic ocean and she is understandably nervous: "The passage of Cape Horn is making me uncomfortable...". One thing that is certain, is that the next 18 hours are going to be stressful - 30+ knot sustained winds with squalls bringing gusts in excess of 45-50 knots and very rough seas as a low pressure tracks to the north-east escorting MacArthur into the South Atlantic. Crossing Drakes Passage can throw up the most appalling conditions as the Southern Ocean weather depressions get squeezed through the 200-mile wide bottleneck between Cape Horn and Antarctica. The other thing that is less certain is her ETA: "To be honest, I just don't know... It's not as early as we thought yesterday, that's for sure, the night has been pretty slow so I would say between 0600-1200 UTC." Navigating this passage will be very tricky, partly in darkness, MacArthur will have to avoid the Diego Ramirez island, approx 60 miles south-west of Cape Horn, and current routing suggests she will go south of this small island before heading north-east towards the 'exit' of the south. Her closest proximity to Cape Horn will be when she is to the south-east of it, but she is unlikely to pass that close, maybe as much as 30 miles offshore. It will be a strange concept for MacArthur, to be so close to land once again - the last time she actually saw land was on day 17 passing the island of Tristan da Cunha in the South Atlantic on 14th December.
For now, MacArthur is indextaining a five day lead [5 days, 2 hours, 10 minutes at 1400 GMT this afternoon] and it looks possible that she could take a significant chunk of time off Joyon's time to Cape Horn which he rounded on 10th January 2004 at 1021 GMT after 49 days, 2 hours and 21 minutes.
As she prepares to leave the harshest stage of the voyage behind her, Ellen estimates that her chances of completing the tour increase significantly, but that equally the chances of technical failure increase exponentially, that could bring her attempt to a sudden halt. Having completed 18,800 miles of the course, representing just two-thirds of the total distance, both boat and skipper have endured a relentless pace that leaves them fatigued to the extreme. There is a high risk of a major technical failure that could end the attempt in a blink of an eye, or MacArthur making a bad decision on the weather that could ruin her chances of success as they head out into the final stage of the course that will bring more complicated weather challenges: "I think the chances of actually completing the trip once you go round Cape Horn go up considerably, there is no doubt about it. You've gone through the Southern Ocean which is the most dangerous and stressful place you will sail in during the trip. So I would say that once you go round Cape Horn your chances of finishing the trip probably go up by 60-70%. But then you've got to look at the other side, at the area where you have the most unstable winds, the area where you have the lightest winds, is the Atlantic and I may have a 5 day lead right now but that could be lost. Anything could happen between now and the finish, and the worst thing to be is complacent, right now, it really is."
WEATHER ANALYSIS FROM COMMANDERS' WEATHER:
Will be very tricky maneuvering just south of Cape Horn and north of the potential ice fields in next 24 hours.
Big low pressure system 500 miles SSW of Cape Horn at 6 utc Tuesday will track slowly northeast in the next 24 hours. This low will escort Ellen toward and around Cape Horn with increasing WSW-W winds. Wind speeds will likely build to 30-40 kts and seas will come up to 15-25 feet.
As if the winds and seas are not enough the routing thru this area will be very tricky with Ellen needing to avoid Diego Ramiriz Island, potential icebergs south of 56s and Cape Horn itself. Several gybes may be needed next 24 hours to do this.
Once past Cape Horn she will have to decide whether she can go east of Staten Island or head up thru the Straits of Le Maire. If she goes thru the Straits of Le Maire she will need to time the currents so she is going with the current and the SW wind. This could be very tricky and the route east of Staten Island
may be safer. Once north of Staten Island strong SW winds will make for a fast ride west of the Falkland Islands.
Wind forecasts
Wind directions are TRUE, wind speed in kts, time is UTC
Tue, Jan 11
15: 240-270/26-32, a gust/squall to 40-45
18: 250-280/28-34, a gust/squall to 45-50
Changeable skies with a scattering of squalls - could gust to 45-50 kts this afternoon/early evening. Seas rough, at least 15-20 feet
Wed, Jan 12
00: 250-280/26-34, gusts/squalls 45-50
06: 280-240/26-34, gust/squall 45
12: 230-250/26-34, gust/squall 40-45, just E of the Straits of Lemaire
18: 230-250/26-34, gust/squall 45-50
Mix of clouds and sunshine with a few less showers/squalls, but still a cold, heavy breeze.
Seas will be rough, but should improve some, once in the lee of Argentina
Thu, Jan 13
00: 230-250/25-35, gust 40
06: 230-250/24-32, gust 40
12: 240-260/22-28, near 47 10s/60 10w
18: 250-270/20-25
Partly cloudy with the showers/squalls ending. Seas 10-15 feet
http://www.commandersweather.com
PARTNER OF THE DAY : MCMURDO
Official supplier of safety equipment to Ellen and the Offshore Challenges Sailing Team
Click here for further information on Sailing Speed Records http://www.sailspeedrecords.com and here for information on Ellen's campaign http://www.teamellen.com
For further information, please contact Offshore Challenges:
Lou Newlands or Lucy Harwood
T: +44 (0)870 063 0210
E: lou@offshorechallenges.com or lucy@offshorechallenges.com
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