Lat/Long: 50 11 S / 060 48 W (70 miles NW Falkland Islands)
Average Boat speed: 20.19 knots (heading NE)
True Wind speed: 18.0 knots (direction NW)
Distance sailed so far: 19,553 miles at an average speed of 17.6 knots
(data communicated by Thrane MiniC via BT Business Broadband)
Update based on data recorded 1510 GMT...check http://www.teamellen.com for the latest data updated hourly
IN BRIEF:
* AFTER THE HARSH EXIT FROM THE SOUTHERN OCEAN YESTERDAY now the South Atlantic is proving to be just as unforgiving.
* MACARTHUR EXHAUSTED, very little left in the index tank and the reserve tank is running dangerously low.
* TIME FOR RECUPERATION ONLY IF CONDITIONS ALLOW and the weather is not doing exactly as forecasted.
* MORALE-LIFTING RENDEZVOUS WITH THE ROYAL NAVY OFF THE FALKLANDS revives MacArthur's spirits.
IN DETAIL:
Ellen MacArthur may have experienced some sadness at leaving the Southern Ocean behind yesterday but the memory of rounding Cape Horn in extreme 50 knot conditions, is something she would prefer to put behind her and focus on the final third-stage of her solo round the world record attempt. The relief of rounding Cape Horn and heading into the Atlantic proved an illusion. Already exhausted after Cape Horn, last night's conditions did nothing to ease the agony - a rough sea state caused by the storm and a strong 3-5 knot tidal current, combined with wind speeds up to 40 knots, then all but disappearing to just 3 knots in the early of this morning, before steadily rising again to 35 knots - offered MacArthur no salvation. MacArthur went through almost the entire sail wardrobe on B&Q to keep her moving: "Last night I got the index back up with 3 reefs in about 35 knots of breeze, then in the hourly hours of this morning I sat there with 3 reefs expecting 40 knots but ended up with just 3 knots! I didn't know what to do - this was not forecast and I knew that if I put full sail up and we got hit by 40 knots we would be in big trouble..." In the end, MacArthur bit the bullet, unable to stand being tossed around with no sail up anymore, and hoisted the massive 160sqm indexsail up the 100-ft mast but was soon reefing down to 3 reefs as the wind steadily increased to 35 knots. MacArthur is extremely fatigued and running purely off adrenalin and the only hope is that today and tomorrow will offer her some respite to recover.
Conditions have improved somewhat, although reindex slightly unstable both in strength and direction. Commanders' expected the breeze to stay in the W-SW in the mid-20s speed range for most of today, before the approach of a cold front developing in the west tomorrow that would turn the wind into a N-NW direction, but the wind has continued to shift into the north-west throughout today instead: "Not 100% certain why this is happening, but here are my guesses - everything is happening earlier than forecast, but satellite imagery is showing the cold front in the correct spot. The low pressure is forming along the Argentine coast and a warm front moved through the area, this can cause an effect called lee side troughing when a cold front with westerly winds approaches a tall north-south mountain range, like the Andes, the wind rises over the mountains, dumping the rain on the windward side of the mountains and then warms, clears as it descends the leeward side. The lee side causes troughing and Ellen will not want to get stuck in the middle of but stay on the east side of the trough in the north-west. If this is the case, the winds will tend to back as she gets away from the land. I am leaning towards lee side troughing but watching all the other possibilities at this time too!"
However, since gybing back on to port yesterday and heading closer to the direct course, MacArthur has gained the ground she lost in her slow approach to the Horn and is now 1590 miles ahead of Joyon, putting MacArthur 4 days, 20 hours, 9 minutes ahead of his time (calculated using the average speed of Joyon's time around the world), after covering over 19,500 miles through the water at an average speed of 17.6 knots, leaving approximately 6,648 miles to go on a best theorectical course.
MacArthur passed west of the Falkland Islands this morning rendezvousing with the Royal Navy's Type 42 Air Defence destroyer, HMS Gloucester. The rendezvous has been planned for a couple of days and, finally, HMS Gloucester on South Atlantic patrol duty caught up with her 40 miles WNW of the Falkland Islands. "It was good to have some company!" said Ellen. "She sailed along next to me for a few hours and they did a number of fly pasts with the crew so they could get a close-up look!" The ship is under the command of Commander Russ Tuppen and has a crew of 300 including 26 officers. In addition, to the Lynx Helicopter both a Hercules C130 and VC10 aircraft passed over B&Q and then a final salute from two RAF tornado jets on departure: "It was great, they came in very low. Fantastic to have that human contact again and a real morale boost for me."
WEATHER ANALYSIS FROM COMMANDERS' WEATHER 0600UTC THURSDAY, JANUARY 13, 2005
Summary:
1) Looks as though you are now out of the light wind zone and back into the more substantial W-SW breeze.
2) Weak ridge axis should now be shifting east of you into the Falklands, while the next front is pushing across the Tiera Del Fuego.
3) indexly a W-SW flow increasing as you get more north over the next 3-6 hrs or so.
a) Think you should get back into or reindex in the 20s for much of Thursday.
b) Direction will be generally in the 250-280 range
4) The cold front is fairly weak and will not have much adverse affects as it crosses the area later Thursday.
5) This front weakens to the east of you, but another 2nd front develops to the west on Friday.
6) Winds slowly turn into the W-NW to NW ahead of the front.
a) Winds speeds indexly in the 16-25 knot range, which
b) Should allow you to make good boat speeds toward the NE
7) indexly a NW wind flow ahead of the front thru much of Sat, but the front may catch you later Fri or early Sat.
a) Winds may drop off some later in the day and may become more unstable, but
b) Look for winds to shift into the W and then SW behind the frontal passage, possible up into the 25-35 knot range for a time, especially with some squalls.
c) Wind shift occurs from west to east, so if further east, then wind shift may not be until Sat AM,
d) And if on good pace, there is still some chance the front does not catch up with you.
8) Right now, think you do get the frontal passage and will have indexly SW to S wind flow for Sunday.
9) Think you catch up and cross the front again on Monday.
a) Winds shift into the NW and will be able to get more east again.
10) NW breeze then shifts into the N as you get further away from the front
Wind forecasts
Wind directions are TRUE, wind speed in kts, time is UTC
Thu, Jan 13
09: 240-270/16-25
12: 250-280/20-26, near 50 45s/61 50w
18: 250-280/20-28
Partly to variable cloudy. Seas 8-14 feet
Fri, Jan 14
00: 260-280/18-24, a few knots more wind speed 30-45 miles to the E
06: 270-290/16-22
12: 280-310/18-24, near 44 45s/55 30w
18: 280-310/18-24
Partly to variable cloudy, maybe a few showers, but most likely further to the west.
Seas 7-12 feet, indexly W or W-NW swell
http://www.commandersweather.com
PARTNER OF THE DAY : NAUTIX
Official supplier of underwater finishings to Ellen and the Offshore Challenges Sailing Team
Click here for further information on Sailing Speed Records http://www.sailspeedrecords.com and here for information on Ellen's campaign http://www.teamellen.com
For further information, please contact Offshore Challenges:
Lou Newlands or Lucy Harwood
T: +44 (0)870 063 0210
E: lou@offshorechallenges.com or lucy@offshorechallenges.com
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