22.01.2005
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DAY 56 MEDIA RELEASE: CRUEL SOUTH ATLANTIC DESTROYING LEAD...
KEY DATA DAY 55 1510 GMT:
Distance ahead: 449 miles
Time ahead: 1 day 2 hours [representing 6.13% of time reindexing] calculated using the time it took for Joyon to get to the same Distance to Finish as Ellen's current position
OMEGA: Official timekeeper for Ellen MacArthur
Lat/Long: 22 07 S / 030 14 W (700 miles ENE Rio de Janeiro / 1530 miles S Equator)
Average Boat speed: 7.30 knots (heading NE)
True Wind speed: 8.3 knots (direction N)
Sea temperature: 27.6 degrees C
Distance sailed so far: 22,290 miles at an average speed of 16.8 knots
(data communicated by Thrane MiniC via BT Business Broadband)
Update based on data recorded 1510 GMT...check http://www.teamellen.com for the latest data updated hourly
IN BRIEF:
* LIGHT UPWIND CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTH ATLANTIC JUST GET WORSE as latest forecast predicts MacArthur will not be able to get across ridge of high pressure to the stronger E-SE breeze the other side.
* MACARTHUR'S ADVANTAGE COULD EASILY TURN TO A DEFICIT within the next 36 hours. It has only taken 33 hours since 0700gmt yesterday to lose 19 hours of her advantage over the solo record time of Francis Joyon.
* BODY ACHING, STIFF AND SORE after injuries sustained during the mast climbs of Thursday. At least these light conditions allow MacArthur time to physically recuperate.
To listen to Ellen's audio, courtesy of Geolink/Iridium, click here http://www.ocftp2.com/audio/ellen/em220105a_uk_e.mp3
IN DETAIL:
The South Atlantic continues to mete out its injustice on B&Q skipper, Ellen MacArthur, putting her solo round the world record attempt in serious jeopardy. Ten days since rounding Cape Horn, she has seen her near 5-day lead slashed to just 1 day and 2 hours this afternoon. The situation and the forecast for the next few days is so dire that MacArthur expects to lose her lead entirely: "It's been a terrible South Atlantic for us, absolutely terrible, worse then I have every experienced before from a difficulty, struggling and unpredictability point of view - it has just been terrible. We thought Francis had a pretty bad run up the Atlantic, as he did, but nothing as bad as us. We were four days ahead of him at Cape Horn and if we cross the Equator ahead of him, it will be a miracle. It just sums it up for me that the South Atlantic has just been absolutely horrendous." MacArthur needs to cross the Equator, a week today, by 0835 GMT on 29th January, if she is to stay ahead.
B&Q is struggling to indextain speeds over 7-8 knots in the light airs of a high pressure that has expanded over her from the east in the last 24 hours as tries to get northwards off the coast of Brazil. Still with over 1300 miles to the Equator, MacArthur was hanging on to the hope that once she got to the other side of the high pressure ridge, there would be stronger and more stable E-SE winds to help her reach the more established Trade Winds south of the Equator. The latest forecast from Commanders' Weather has just trashed that small iota of hope: "We probably will never really get through the ridge axis as it is forecast to lift northward slowly with us so will never get to the E-SE breeze northeast of the axis now..." MacArthur will have to face more light upwind conditions through into the middle of next and all she can do now is play the shifts to stay in the strongest sector of the northerly airflow without getting pushed to the west closer to the Brazilian coast.
The only upside to the slow, upwind conditions is the time for MacArthur's body to recover from the injuries sustained climbing the 30m mast twice on Thursday: "Right now, I feel achy, very, very tired...a bit relieved that we've got some light winds just for a while to have a stable boat so I can recover a little bit." In these conditions, B&Q will be sailing with full index and genoa that the 75-foot multihull can carry up to the 15 knot mark - this, at least, means MacArthur is not having to make demanding sail changes. Although sleeping is not proving to be easiest commodity in the intense heat off the coast of Brazil: "Last night I spent at least two hours up on deck because there were ships going passed and I didn't want to go to sleep with the ships around, so it didn't really help from a sleep perspective. It's not too bad, it's been better than it has been and I did get some kip last night and I managed to get some jobs ticked off this morning."
MacArthur will not give up the fight but it is turning into a fight of epic proportions as she heads north towards home - over 4,500+ miles away.
WEATHER ANALYSIS FROM COMMANDERS' WEATHER 1400 GMT:
From: Commanders' Weather Corp 1400UTC Saturday, January 22, 2005
Summary:
1) Ridge axis (NW-SE) 20s 33w to 22s 30w to 24s 25w or just to your NE.
2) You are flirting with the wind shift to NE of axis so a tack to starboard ok for a few hours.
3) There may be slightly stronger wind to the west next few hours as well with lighter wind to the east.
4) But by 18 utc winds may flicker left and this will force us to tack back to port.
5) We will have to take what the wind gives us trying to get thru the ridge axis so be prepared for several tacks in the next 36 hours.
6) We probably will never really get thru the ridge axis as it is forecast to lift northward slowly with us so will never get to the E-SE breeze northeast of the axis now.
7) But by 12 utc Sun the NW portion of the ridge axis is becoming less defined as high pressure builds somewhat well to your east.
8) This will tend to re-establish a northerly wind gradient Sunday and
Monday from 340-020.
a) Speeds still only 4-8 kt Sunday
b) Speeds will build some to 8-12 by Monday.
9) Will again be tacking thru this breeze Sunday and Monday.
10) Overall goal is to get north toward the finish but we will need to get east of 30 and the further east the better as winds between 15-10s when we get there will be NE.
11) This wind direction will force us westward some in that zone so want to get to 15 s as far east of 30 as we can.
a) If we end up at 32w in that zone we will get sucked toward Brazil and that is not good.
12) So keep in mind with the tacking we will be wanting to get more east than west in the next few days.
Strategy:
1) Tacking with what the wind gives us with goal of getting as far east of 30 as we can when we get to 15s.
Wind forecasts
Wind directions are TRUE, wind speed in kts, time is UTC
Sat, Jan 22
15: 360-010/ 8-10, near 22 25s/30 05 w
18: 360-350/ 6-10 - wind likely to back a little
Fair to partly cloudy. Seas 4-8 feet variable swell
Sun, Jan 23- wind directions under
00: 330-030/ 3-6- breeze very shifty and could become lt/variable
06: 330-030/ 3-6 breeze very shifty and could become lt/variable
12: 360-030/ 4-8, near 20 30s/29 w - breeze may become more reliable
18: 350-010/ 4-8 - breeze backs some more
Fair to partly cloudy
http://www.commandersweather.com
PARTNER OF THE DAY : RBS
Official Business Partner to Ellen the Offshore Challenges Sailing Team
Click here for further information on Sailing Speed Records http://www.sailspeedrecords.com and here for information on Ellen's campaign http://www.teamellen.com
For further information, please contact Offshore Challenges:
Lou Newlands or Lucy Harwood
T: +44 (0)870 063 0210
E: lou@offshorechallenges.com or lucy@offshorechallenges.com
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B&Q has over 350 stores in the UK, China and Taiwan and employs about 40,000 people. With its sister DIY company Castorama which has stores in France, Italy and Poland, B&Q is the biggest DIY retailer in Europe and third biggest in the world.
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