23.01.2005
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DAY 57 MEDIA RELEASE: EXPECT LEAD TO TURN INTO DEFICIT BY TOMORROW...
KEY DATA DAY 56 0710 GMT:
Distance ahead: 232 miles
Time ahead: 13 hours [representing 3.19% of time reindexing] calculated using the time it took for Joyon to get to the same Distance to Finish as Ellen's current position
OMEGA: Official timekeeper for Ellen MacArthur
Lat/Long: 21 08 S / 029 53 W (730 miles ENE Rio de Janeiro / 1270 miles S Equator)
Average Boat speed: 4.95 knots (heading NE)
True Wind speed: 5.4 knots (direction NNW)
Sea temperature: 27 degrees C
Distance sailed so far: 22,363 miles at an average speed of 16.7 knots
(data communicated by Thrane MiniC via BT Business Broadband)
Update based on data recorded 0710 GMT...check http://www.teamellen.com for the latest data updated hourly
IN BRIEF:
* LEAD CUT TO JUST 13 HOURS THIS MORNING as the light airs continue to dominate B&Q's progress northwards in the South Atlantic.
* EXPECT TO SEE LEAD TURN INTO DEFICIT later today or tomorrow. Vitually no wind for next two days - a desperate and painful forecast after so many miles of blood, sweat and tears and there is nothing MacArthur can do.
* ELLEN GETS PHILOSOPHICAL TO DEAL HER CURRENT PREDICAMENT: "We need to remember that we're here...we could be in worse shape and we're here." See Ellen's latest email in full below
IN DETAIL:
B&Q's boat speeds since midnight have not exceeded 5 knots and the light airs are set to continue for another 48 hours or more, as MacArthur's lead is cut to just 13 hours at 0710gmt. Today, Commanders' expect Ellen to see little breeze much over 6 knots, close to the weak ridge of high pressure that is unfortunately drifting slowly northwards at the same rate as Ellen - its like walking backwards up the escaltor. There is a chance that as this ridge dissipates, wind pressure may increase to 10 knots by Monday night and into Tuesday. It is important for Ellen to try and get as much easting as possible to have a better wind angle and faster speeds by the time she reaches the Trade Winds in the middle of next week. Currently 730 miles east of Rio de Janeiro on the Brazilian coast, there is another 600-700 miles to go until Ellen may start to feel the first effects of the Trade Winds and a total of 1270 miles to go sail before crossing the Equator and the hope of more stable, faster conditions of the North Atlantic.
Without doubt, MacArthur's lead is expected to turn into a deficit later today or tomorrow. MacArthur has held an advantage of the solo record time of Francis Joyon since day 7 of her attempt on 1.12.04 - during the first week of her attempt she took the lead on day 4, lost it on day 6, then reclaimed an advantage on the seventh day which she has not relinquished since. As the lead disappears, the bad news is that Joyon has an amazing run in this next 24 hours, a Southern Ocean style 425 mile day, followed by a 399 mile day tomorrow. The only good news is that he does actually slow down on Wednesday (162 miles) and Thursday (130nm). Ellen's 232 mile lead at 0710 today is sadly going to turn to in to a significant deficit before the end of tomorrow. As Ellen said yesterday: "If we cross the Equator ahead of Francis, it will be a miracle."
MacArthur tries to rationalise her latest predicament as best she can: "We need to remember that we're here...we could be in worse shape and we're here." See Ellen's latest email in full below as she comes to terms with the situation. Now is the time for Ellen to physically recuperate properly from the rigours of the last 2 weeks. It is an opportunity that she must exploit to get herself physically back on track and use the downtime to check over B&Q for any signs of fatigue, so that when the wind comes back Ellen will be ready to put the pedal to the metal for home.
ELLEN EMAIL 23.1.05
Sometimes you feel the need to write, but are not sure why... Now is one of those moments. The sun set a few hours ago over the most unbelievable flat sea...it seems stange not to feel B&Q be tossed around by the waves, and her every move dictated by the waves around her. Now we are surrounded by a lightly textured, slightly undulating carpet, which stretches farther than the eye can see by thousands of miles. I seem to have found some kind of inner peace tonight, and though today has been a very hot and little restful day I feel surprisingly good. The weather could not be worse for the record, as I sit here we're sailing at 4 knots. But we have what we have, we cannot alter the weather. It's true that the south atlantic for us has been absolutely terrible. We could not have had much more changeable or worse conditions - but we need to remember that we're here. We could be in worse shape and we're here. It's better to forget the 4 day lead we had at the horn and think about each day as it comes. Do the best we can - then the rest will happen on it's own. We have pushed hard, and given our maximum, and will continue to do so - time will bring the outcome...not tears, frustration nor stress. Easy to say, but tonight I feel in control - that's a better feeling than the past few weeks. I think mentally it always helps me to get on with jobs onboard, and today I tinkered away in the scorching heat, as it was too hot to sleep anyway. I rewired both ends of the earth protector for the active echo, checked the steering bearings, replaced some protection on the mast, removed the damaged netting protection from the port side, checked all the seals on the float hatches, and fixed the fixings in position, epoxied [glued] the bulleye back on the deck for the Solent, and also bonded the deck that had been torn up as it went flying. Checked the diesel levels - all OK, you know - the usual Sunday 'indextenance!'. All in all a good day's tinkering. Anyway, the wind is literally all over the place and I'm horrified to see it's doing it's best to plague me with the stress of which sail. A light and variable wind which is 90 degrees from where it should be coming from. The usual - more challenges
signing off from a humid cabin..
exx
WEATHER ANALYSIS FROM COMMANDERS' WEATHER 0600 GMT:
From: Commanders' Weather Corp 0600UTC Sunday, January 23, 2005
Very slow times for Ellen next few days. Winds continue extremely light for Ellen today (3-6 kts) with direction variable near the ill defined and weak ridge of high pressure. The hope is that gradually in the next 12-24 hours that the breeze fills in a little as the ridge dissipates in favor of a somewhat higher pressure further east. Hopefully, we can get the breeze up to 5-8 kts by Monday and toward 10 kts Monday night and Tuesday.
The direction, which will still be very shifty at times early Sunday, may try to settle in from a northerly direction later Sunday and Sunday night. This northerly breeze will continue Monday but again under 10 kts.
Ellen will do her best trying to get north today likely passing west of Trindade Sunday night. Then she will likely get some easting in with the north wind Sunday night and Monday to set up for a better wind angle and faster boat speeds as she finally enters the trade winds midweek.
Strategy:
1) Use what wind there is to get north as best you can passing west of Trindade.
2) May have to throw in a brief tack to starboard if winds clock to N and you can not clear it
3) Once you clear it continue on port and get some easting in Sunday night and Monday.
4) Some time 18 utc Mon-00 utc Tue when winds go right of 360 go onto starboard but continue to limit westing.
5) Want you to cross 15s as far east of 30 as possible.
Wind forecasts
Wind directions are TRUE, wind speed in kts, time is UTC
Sun, Jan 23
09: 330-350/ 3-6
12: 350-360/ 3-6, near 21s/29 50w
18: 330-350/ 3-6 - breeze backs a bit
Fair to partly cloudy
Mon, Jan 24
00: 340-360/ 3-6 - breeze more left if further S -more right if further north
06: 330-350/ 5-9- breeze more left to the S and W, more right to the N and E
12: 340-360/ 4-8, near 18 30s/28 20w - wind more right to the N and E, more left to the S and W
18: 350-010/ 4-8 -back on starboard heading NNW when winds go past 360
Fair to partly cloudy
http://www.commandersweather.com
PARTNER OF THE DAY : OMEGA
Official timekeeper of Ellen MacArthur
Click here for further information on Sailing Speed Records http://www.sailspeedrecords.com and here for information on Ellen's campaign http://www.teamellen.com
For further information, please contact Offshore Challenges:
Lou Newlands or Lucy Harwood
T: +44 (0)870 063 0210
E: lou@offshorechallenges.com or lucy@offshorechallenges.com
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