Lat/Long: 04 19 S / 029 58 W (400 miles NE Recife / 270 miles S Equator)
Average Boat speed: 19.61 knots (heading N by E)
True Wind speed: 18.7 knots (direction SSE)
Sea temperature: 27.6 degrees C
Distance sailed so far: 23,441 miles at an average speed of 16.3 knots
(data communicated by Thrane MiniC via BT Business Broadband)
Update based on data recorded 0710 GMT...check http://www.teamellen.com for the latest data updated hourly
IN BRIEF:
* B&Q BUILDING LEAD THAT MAY BE NEEDED TO ABSORB LOSSES AT DOLDRUMS.
* B&Q SHOULD REACH EQUATOR IN THE EARLY HOURS OF TOMORROW MORNING.
* BIG AREA OF SQUALLS IN THE DOLDRUMS - Ellen aiming to cross the narrowest band of activity stretching over a 120 miles north-south area around 30 degrees west.
* OUTLOOK NORTH OF THE EQUATOR is showing NE and ENE Trade Winds filling in around 3-4 degrees north
* ELLEN'S OC SAILING TEAM MATE UPDATE: Nick Moloney has reached Rio de Janeiro safe and sound. Arriving late last night under tow from the Brazilian navy, smaller motor boats then took over to get Skandia to the dockside. http://www.nickmoloney.com
IN DETAIL:
MacArthur is sailing B&Q fast northwards to the Equator, 270 miles further up the race track. Her fast growing advance, standing at 1 day and 5 hours this morning, is principally down to Joyon having a terrible time right now - although things improve quickly for him after today. Looking back at his VMG distances [VMG is distance sailed towards the finish, not through the water] - he only made 162 miles yesterday and just 130 miles today compared to Ellen who sailed 388 miles VMG yesterday. But Ellen may well have to sacrifice her lead as she negotiates the Doldrums tomorrow, she is already thinking about her offering to Neptune at the Equator: "I haven't decided yet what to give to Neptune but it will be the most precious thing I have to give to get us home." Overnight average wind speeds ranged between 13-19 knots and continued to turn further into the south, working Ellen hard in keeping B&Q moving at optimum speed as the breeze increased from midnight onwards. With the present wind angle and sea conditions, B&Q can carry full index and genoa up to 15 knots, changing down to Solent jib when the breeze starts to tip over the 15 knot mark, then 1 reef in the indexsail as it edges towards 20 knots. Sailing with the wind coming from a more southerly direction will provide a more stable ride compared to the uncomfortable reaching conditions of yesterday.
B&Q should reach Equator in the early hours of tomorrow morning aiming for a crossing at 30-29 degrees west. Joyon, who got stuck close to the coast of Brazil in his approach to the Equator, crossed much further west at 32 degrees west. He was fortunate to sail IDEC straight through, even picking up the north-east Trade Winds south of the Equator. The pressure is on Ellen to get across the Equator and to the Doldrums, currently positioned at 1-3 degrees north, as soon as possible. Latest satellite imagery is showing the Doldrums activity increasing after 1800gmt tomorrow.
A big area of squalls in the Doldrums will keep Ellen on full alert. With the airflow moving more vertically than horizontally as the SE and NE Trades come together, this can produce a suction effect resulting in either no wind or more often than not violent rain squalls with strong gusts of wind that can have a catastrophic result if a skipper is caught unawares. The index Doldrum activity appears to be west of 30 degrees west stretching over a 180 mile area north-south. Ellen will be aiming to pass through the narrowest band of Dodrum activity between 30-28 degrees west, although Commanders' still expect this band to be around 120 miles across. Today the breeze is expected to stay in the 15-20 knot range before starting to back towards the east as <> gets close to the Equator.
The outlook north of the Equator is showing NE and ENE Trade Winds filling in around 3-4 degrees north increasing steadily as Ellen's pushes northwards. The key objective for Ellen once back in the Northern Hemisphere will be not to get pushed west of 35 degrees west as winds will be much lighter from 12 degrees north. A low moving north towards the Azores will provide some fast sailing conditions early next week but a huge high pressure sitting to the west of Scotland will prove critical to <> route to the finish depending on which way it moves. That is all to come, for now Ellen's immediate concern is to get to through the Doldrums with some of her advantage in tact.
WEATHER ANALYSIS FROM COMMANDERS' WEATHER 0600 GMT:
SE trade winds are increasing for Ellen at this time. The SE trade winds will average around 20 kts by 1200UTC and continue quite fresh until about 1S to the equator. Winds will slowly back and wind speeds will diminish north of the equator.
Lots of squall activity near 1-4N/24-30W and moving west at this time. Squalls in the doldrums may have brief wind gusts over 20 kts, but they far more notorious for killing the breeze, as there will be little if any wind in the wake of the doldrums shower and squall activity.
It still appears that the earlier Ellen arrives in the doldrums, the easier it will be. At this time tomorrow, Ellen should be arriving in the doldrums. Ellen should pop out of the doldrums near 4N and the ENE trade winds will average around 12-18 kts – not terribly strong, but more favorable for sailing a NNW course.
Strategy
1) Lets get over to 30W by 0-1S and then northward as best as possible
2) Try to stay east of 35W when in the NE and ENE trade winds
Wind forecasts
Wind directions are TRUE, wind speed in kts, time is UTC
Thurs, Jan 27
12: 130-150/18-24, near 2 50s/29 45w
18: 140-160/15-20
Partly cloudy
Fri, Jan 28
00: 130-100/12-17 - wind lighter to the N
06: 100-070/16-6
12: 090-060/ 8-14, near 3N/29W
18: 050-070/10-16
Changeable skies Fri with a scattering of showers/squalls
http://www.commandersweather.com
FRANCIS JOYON 24 HOUR RUNS
Francis Joyon's 24 hour runs. These are VMG distances, ie distance sailed towards the finish, not through the water:
26.1.05 IDEC 162 miles / B&Q 388 miles
27.1.05 IDEC 130 miles
28.1.05 IDEC 232 miles
29.1.05 IDEC 257 miles
30.1.05 IDEC 300 miles
31.1.05 IDEC 299 miles
1.2.05 IDEC 278 miles
2.2.05 IDEC 221 miles
3.2.05 IDEC 212 miles
4.2.05 IDEC 162 miles
5.2.05 IDEC 284 miles
6.2.05 IDEC 383 miles
7.2.05 IDEC 400 miles
8.2.05 IDEC 439 miles
9.2.05 IDEC 345 miles
[dates normalised to Ellen's]
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