04.02.2005
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DAY 69 MEDIA RELEASE : LACK OF WIND OVERNIGHT CUTS MACARTHUR'S LEAD BY 11 HOURS...
KEY DATA DAY 68 0710 GMT:
Distance ahead: 910 miles
Time ahead: 2 days 15 hours [representing 52.50% of time reindexing] calculated using the time it took for Joyon to get to the same Distance to Finish as Ellen's current position
OMEGA: Official timekeeper for Ellen MacArthur
Lat/Long: 41 33 N / 025 18 W (200 miles N Azores / 735 miles E by N Vigo, Portugal)
Average Boat speed: 6.83 knots (heading NNE)
True Wind speed: 5.6 knots (direction NW by N)
Distance sailed so far: 26,288 miles at an average speed of 16.1 knots
(data communicated by Thrane MiniC via BT Business Broadband)
ETA: [Estimated Time of Arrival is based on the latest weather information available to the team today, as the weather evolves the ETA will be updated. This refers to crossing the finish line, arrival in Falmouth would be 7 to 14 hours later]
Earliest: Monday
Average: Tuesday
Latest: Wednesday
Update based on data recorded 0710 GMT...check http://www.teamellen.com for the latest data updated hourly
IN BRIEF:
* SOLO RECORD DEMANDING FULL VERSE AND CHAPTER
from MacArthur as the final stages of her solo, non-stop round the world record unfold. She has had endure a night of little to no wind as boat speeds rarely topped 1 knot [1 nautical mile per hour, 1.15 mph, 1.85 km/h] of speed for a six hour period and then, this weekend, she will possibly have to face a northerly gale gusting up to 40 knots with very rough seas. As expected, B&Q's lead has fallen to 2 days and 15 hours this morning [200 miles north of the Azores and 735 miles west of Vigo, Portugal], losing 11 hours in the last 24 hour period as B&Q only managed 154 miles of distance towards the finish. B&Q has now sailed 26,288 miles at an average speed of 16.1 knots and there are 946 miles left on the clock requiring an average VMG [Velocity Made Good towards the finish] of 7.9 knots, current VMG at 0710gmt this morning is 7.1 knots. The early part of the night offered MacArthur no reprieve and sleep became impossible as the total lack of wind meant the autopilot alarms were constantly going off - unable to hold on as the wind data goes round in circles and lack of boat speed means no steerage left - leaving MacArthur evenly more deeply fatigued and seething with frustration [a bruised fist and broken mp3 player resulted!]. This solo attempt is demanding everything from her and the 75ft multihull B&Q. If they can hold it together they have a good chance of reaching the finish line off Ushant by Tuesday. But as Mike Golding's spectacular finish to his solo Vendée Globe race has proven [he lost his keel 40 miles from the finish in Les Sables d'Olonne but managed to keep the boat upright and cross the finish line early this morning in a much deserved 3rd place, http://www.vendeeglobe.fr] - it isn't over, until its over...
* IS MACARTHUR'S LEAD ENOUGH TO GET HER THROUGH?
Yes, definitely, if she can get into the stronger wind soon. The latest boat data for 0800gmt shows wind speeds nudging over five knots suggesting she might be already seeing signs of new breeze ahead of schedule, as the forecast is for very light 5 knots to develop from the north from 1200gmt today. There are three distinct weather phases for MacArthur to get through to the finish line off Ushant: phase 1 - clear the light winds of the high pressure some time today to get into fresher breeze from the north; phase 2 - survive a northerly gale over the weekend delivering 30-35 knots of breeze, gusts of 40, and very, very rough seas - potentially boat-breaking conditions and extreme conditions for MacArthur; phase 3 - hook into more favourable south-east winds off north-west Spain to reach [wind at 90 degrees ie side on to the boat] to the finish line, although some weather files show this becoming very light as Ushant approaches. Latest routing shows that as the northerly breeze kicks in, B&Q tack will tack on to port to head east towards Cape Finisterre, north west tip of Spain, before tacking back on to starboard as the breeze veers into the south-east to head for Ushant. Once in a more stable weather system of low pressure [albeit a gale!], the prediction of when MacArthur is expected to arrive, technical issues aside, can be made with greater confidence. But for now the best guess for her arrival is Tuesday.
* JOYON WAS HAVING A BAD DAY TOO!
Francis was about to have a terrible 24 hours, on this same day of his attempt, managing just 162 miles distance towards the finish. But then his luck turned as the weather went in his favour allowing him to make an exceedingly fast dash to the line. With <> advance measured without taking in to account the future miles of IDEC, its worth noting these Distance Made Good numbers [see Joyon data below] as they will have a big impact on reducing the Time Ahead data on the website...
WEATHER ANALYSIS FROM COMMANDERS' WEATHER 0600 GMT:
In the rules of record attempts, skippers are allowed to use the advice of shore-based weather experts to assist them with their choices. Ellen is working with two teams, principally Commanders Weather in the USA, backed up by Meeno Schrader in Germany.
Still very slow going for Ellen next 6-12 hours as she negotiates a small cell of high pressure not far away. But a much bigger high pressure system now in the central Atlantic near 51n 40w will be building eastward over the next 1-2 days. By midday Sat expect the center of the high to be centered near 52n 29w.
Initially this high will begin to freshen Ellen's winds slightly late Friday afternoon or evening up towards 10 kts. By daybreak Sat speeds likely in the 15-20 kt range and by Saturday evening likely 25-30 kts with stronger gusts. The wind direction for the most part will be northerly so Ellen will have to play it tight to the wind to get home.
There likely will be one last period of gale force winds overnight Saturday night into early Sunday as the wind gradient strengthens between the big high and developing low pressure near Cape Finisterre. Winds likely will gust utoward 40 kts and seas will be building to 15-20 feet. This will be a very rough period for Ellen.
But diminishing winds Sunday and clocking to E-SE by Monday should allow Ellen to have a more comfortable finish to her long journey.
Wind forecasts
Wind directions are TRUE, wind speed in kts, time is UTC
Fri, Feb 4
09: 320-340/ 4-7
12: 320-340/ 4-8, near 42 n/25 w Bubble high just to your W
18: 320-340/ 6-10
Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy, maybe a brief, squally shower or 2
Sat, Feb 5 - BECOMING VERY ROUGH LATE DAY AND NIGHT
00: 350-010/10-15
06: 360-020/15-20
12: 350-010/20-25, near 44N/20 W
18: 340-360/25-32
Cloudy to partly cloudy - squally showers likely with gusts to 40 kts overnight
Seas building to 12-18 feet at night.
Sun, Feb 6 - VERY ROUGH
00: 350-010/26-34, gust 40
06: 360-020/24-32, gust 40
12: 010-030/24-32, gust 35, near 45 N/13 W
Want to be up near or north of 45 if possible
18: 030-050/22-30 g 35
Lots of clouds and more squally showers likely - gusts to 35-40 kts likely
Seas 16-22 feet but subsiding pm/night.
http://www.commandersweather.com
FRANCIS JOYON 24 HOUR RUNS
Francis Joyon's 24 hour runs. These are VMG distances, ie distance sailed towards the finish, not through the water:
26.1.05 IDEC 162 miles / B&Q 388 miles
27.1.05 IDEC 130 miles / B&Q 367 miles
28.1.05 IDEC 232 miles / B&Q 258 miles
29.1.05 IDEC 257 miles / B&Q 317 miles
30.1.05 IDEC 300 miles / B&Q 374 miles
31.1.05 IDEC 299 miles / B&Q 398 miles
1.2.05 IDEC 278 miles / B&Q 412 miles
2.2.05 IDEC 221 miles / B&Q 305 milesv
3.2.05 IDEC 212 miles / B&Q 154 miles
4.2.05 IDEC 162 miles
5.2.05 IDEC 284 miles
6.2.05 IDEC 383 miles
7.2.05 IDEC 400 miles
8.2.05 IDEC 439 miles
9.2.05 IDEC 345 miles
[dates normalised to Ellen's]
PARTNER OF THE DAY : MARLOW ROPES
Official Rope Supplier to Ellen and the Offshore Challenges Sailing Team
Click here for further information on Sailing Speed Records http://www.sailspeedrecords.com and here for information on Ellen's campaign http://www.teamellen.com
For further information, please contact Offshore Challenges:
Lou Newlands or Lucy Harwood
T: +44 (0)870 063 0210
E: lou@offshorechallenges.com or lucy@offshorechallenges.com
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