Lat/Long: 43 33 N / 020 26 W (400 miles NNE Azores / 495 miles W Cape Finisterre)
Average Boat speed: 13.78 knots (heading NE by E)
True Wind speed: 23.6 knots (direction N)
Sea temperature: 13.7 degrees C
Distance sailed so far: 26,545 miles at an average speed of 16.0 knots
(data communicated by Thrane MiniC via BT Business Broadband)
ETA: [Estimated Time of Arrival is based on the latest weather information available to the team today and ignoring technical breakdown slowing Ellen down. As the weather evolves the ETA will be updated. This refers to crossing the finish line, arrival in Falmouth would be 7 to 14 hours later]
Earliest: Monday 1200-2000GMT
Average: Monday 2000GMT to Tuesday 1200 GMT
Latest: 1200GMT Tuesday to Wednesday 1200 GMT
Update based on data recorded 0710 GMT...check http://www.teamellen.com for the latest data updated hourly
IN BRIEF:
* NORTHERLY GALE ALREADY MAKING ITSELF FELT as B&Q skipper, Ellen MacArthur pushes the 75ft multihull to the north-east, heading for north of Cape Finisterre, 495 miles away to the east - the final Cape marking the entry into the Bay of Biscay. With the strong wind coming from the north, MacArthur is unable to sail a direct course to the finish off Ushant, this will put her on a dangerous point of sail - cold unstable gusty wind on the nose, and a huge sea from the side - in Ellen's own words this morning, 'capsize conditions'.
* LESS THAN 700 MILES TO SAIL BUT FINISH SEEMS A LONG WAY AWAY for Ellen as she sails into the storm: "It's funny yesterday the finish seemed quite close, now it feels a very long way away..." MacArthur willl first have to deal with the storm before looking for a shift in the breeze to the east then south-east that will free her to tack on to starboard and head for the finish line off Ushant.
* LATEST ROUTING SHOWS B&Q CROSSING THE LINE OVERNIGHT ON MONDAY but one thing is sure, this 'final' storm is a very high risk time for Ellen and the trimaran, in their tired states after 26,600 miles of ocean racing...different to the Southern Ocean storms, this one Ellen has no choice but to punch in to. The effective apparent wind is likely to touch 60 knots (69mph, 111km/h) in the gusts (45 knots of wind, 15 knots of boat speed, the effective or 'apparent' wind as it is known, being the sum of the two like running on land in to the wind).
EARLY MORNING CALL FROM ELLEN TO SHORE TEAM:
"It's pretty bad already, it's going to be horrendous... The models where I am now say I should have 18 knots of breeze and I've got a 28 knot average already, gusting 33 and it's not supposed to get bad for another 12 hours. Going to be lucky to come through this without breaking something or capsizing, to be frank, because its already really rough and its going to get really, really rough. The waves are going to be absolutely huge and we're going to be going straight across them which is the worst thing you could possibly do. I'm really worried. Just got to keep things together for the next 24 hours." The storm is certainly not the final hurdle for MacArthur, busy shipping lanes crossing the Bay of Biscay and ocean debris will still be concerns, but it will be a case of hanging in there without breaking anything.
"At the begining of the night, I got about an hour and a half [of sleep] because the breeze was due to increase but it died so I thought I should get some sleep then. Then I had hours and hours in the night when I couldn't sleep. I was so cold, it's freezing out here, absolutely freezing. I just couldn't get warm and there were ships around as well. I tell you something I am going to be looking forward to sunrise tomorrow morning.
To be honest, an 80 degree True Wind Angle would be nice [currently sailing closer than this at 60 TWA, but wind due to move left] but, unfortunately, its going to be in the same heading that it is right now so the wind is going to come round a bit more from the north-west but sadly the sea won't for a while. I've got staysail and 2 reefs at the moment and I normally go for the 3rd reef when we've got consistently over 30 knots. To be honest, we're not far off 3rd reef which I didn't think we would be putting in until this afternoon.
It's been more stable in the last hour, there were a couple of spikes but it is increasing. I really don't want to bust anything and the conditions we had last night that stopped me sleeping were not having enough sail up and falling off every wave. When the wind went down to 15 knots it was really terrible - everything just shakes, you're not even loaded and the boat just falls and that's awful - you just try to find the compromise between the two. I can't relax at all because it's not a relaxing situation and it's not like 'don't worry, you will be in in three days', because right now we are facing the worst conditions from a boat-break point of view that we've had in the entire trip without a doubt.
At least with the south-easterly the swell should die down a bit - it doesn't look like the strongest of the wind really creates a massive swell in Biscay because by the time you get the shift, it's actually quite light in Biscay the whole time. There's a low in the middle of it, so the breeze is all over the place not generating any real sea state, when the wind goes into the south-east we will get some sea but not too much.
It's funny yesterday the finish seemed quite close, now it feels a very long way away...
WEATHER ANALYSIS FROM COMMANDERS' WEATHER 0600 GMT:
In the rules of record attempts, skippers are allowed to use the advice of shore-based weather experts to assist them with their choices. Ellen is working with two teams, principally Commanders Weather in the USA, backed up by Meeno Schrader in Germany.
One more period of gales and very rough seas Saturday night into Sunday then Ellen will be into calmer conditions and on her way to the finish.
Winds will gradually build Saturday and Saturday night for Ellen as strong
northerly wind gradient develops between High pressure out at 50n/25w and broad low pressure trough developing from the English Channel to Southern Portugal.
Expect wind speeds to get into the 30-40 kt [see Latest News for a more recent update as well from Meeno Schrader] range with seas building to 15-20 feet overnight Saturday night. Ellen will continue to sail tight to the breeze as she can to avoid running into NW Spain. She should be able to do this but the boat will take a bashing.
Sunday conditions will be relaxing as she approaches 10w. The northerly wind will be trending toward NE Sunday afternoon and evening and finally shift into the E by daybreak Monday. This wind shift into the E, then SE Monday, will allow Ellen to head for the finish at Ushant.
Wind forecasts
Wind directions are TRUE, wind speed in kts, time is UTC
Sat, Feb 5 - BECOMING VERY ROUGH LATE DAY AND NIGHT
09: 020-010/20-25 - winds shift left
12: 010-360/22-26 near 43 40N/18 40W
18: 360-345/23-28, gust 30-35
Cloudy to partly cloudy - squally showers likely with gusts to 40 kts overnight.
Seas building to 12-18 feet at night.
Sun, Feb 6 - VERY ROUGH then slow improvement
00: 350-010/28-34, gust 40- peak of the winds
06: 360-020/26-32, gust 35
12: 010-030/30-22, near 44 30N/11 30W
Want to be up near or north of 45 if possible
Lots of clouds with squally showers diminishing
Seas 16-22 feet but subsiding pm/night.
Mon, Feb 7- winds clock
00: 050-070/18-14 - tack to starboard somewhere 00-06 utc
06: 090-110/ 8-12- lighter west- stronger east
12: 130-150/15-20, near 47N/7 W- winds lighter west
18: 130-150/15-20 approach Ushant
Cloudy to partly cloudy
http://www.commandersweather.com
http://www.wetterwelt.de
FRANCIS JOYON 24 HOUR RUNS
Francis Joyon's 24 hour runs. These are VMG distances, ie distance sailed towards the finish, not through the water:
26.1.05 IDEC 162 miles / B&Q 388 miles
27.1.05 IDEC 130 miles / B&Q 367 miles
28.1.05 IDEC 232 miles / B&Q 258 miles
29.1.05 IDEC 257 miles / B&Q 317 miles
30.1.05 IDEC 300 miles / B&Q 374 miles
31.1.05 IDEC 299 miles / B&Q 398 miles
1.2.05 IDEC 278 miles / B&Q 412 miles
2.2.05 IDEC 221 miles / B&Q 305 miles
3.2.05 IDEC 212 miles / B&Q 154 miles
4.2.05 IDEC 162 miles / B&Q 248 miles
5.2.05 IDEC 284 miles
6.2.05 IDEC 383 miles
7.2.05 IDEC 400 miles
8.2.05 IDEC 439 miles
9.2.05 IDEC 345 miles
[dates normalised to Ellen's]
PARTNER OF THE DAY : MUSTO
Official technical clothing supplier to Ellen and the Offshore Challenges Sailing Team
To view the daily summary of Ellen's round the world record attempt so far, click here:
http://www.teamellen.com/ellen.asp?artid=2340
For information on the Media Facilities available in Falmouth click here:
http://www.ocftp2.com/general/MediaFacilitiesUK.doc
Timeline between Ellen crossing the line, arrriving in Falmouth and following media activity, click here:
http://www.ocftp2.com/general/Timeline_UK.doc
For an index of all audio files available from Ellen's round the world record attempt so far, click here: http://www.teamellen.com/ellen.asp?artid=2363
Click here for further information on Sailing Speed Records http://www.sailspeedrecords.com and here for information on Ellen's campaign http://www.teamellen.com
For further information, please contact Offshore Challenges:
Lou Newlands or Lucy Harwood
T: +44 (0)870 063 0210
E: lou@offshorechallenges.com or lucy@offshorechallenges.com
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