[February 04, 2001 - 2:57:48 PM]
Philippe Jeantot’s analysis: Decisive days...
Sunday and Monday are going to be decisive to determine
who is going to be the winner of the race. Between 29° and
31° North, the two leaders have a ridge across their course,
which they will not be able to avoid. There is no alternative
solution than going through it. This mean that the 120 miles
they have to sail in the ridge are going to be nerve breaking
for the skippers. Indeed the weather files are showing light
winds, no more than 5 knots on the whole area.
Michel Desjoyeaux (PRB), is 1°30 further North than Ellen
MacArthur (Kingfisher) and is the first one to suffer from the
progressive slow down of the trade winds, whose first
consequence is the reduction of his boat’s speed.
Ellen 90’ further South is benefiting from stronger winds and
thus managed to keep her initial speed.This explains why
looking at the distance to the finish (DTF) she is now only 36
miles behind the French skipper. This was easy to forecast
and the phenomenon risks to increase in the next hours. PRB
still has a big advantage in latitude and should be the first
one to restart. It all depends on how each of them is going to
negotiate this complicated calm zone. We know that when
there is no wind somewhere the conditions can be very
different just a few miles away. One can find the exit door and
not the other. It’s a bit of a gamble, and there is not much
the skipper can do apart from looking for every little sign of
breeze to progress to the North : where the way out is. Once
they have passed the ridge, the two sailors will catch the South
Westerly winds from the low pressures systems of the Northen
Atlantic. Then with downwind winds often up to 45 knots, the
competitors will start the final sprint to Les Sables d’Olonne.
Neck to neck it will not be possible to play wisely, but they will
have to press the accelerator as they have very similar
speeds. The advantage should go to the one with the most
sails up.
Michel Desjoyeaux was admitting this morning: « In this game
I have more to lose than to win when Ellen has more to win
than to lose.».
His breton friend, Roland Jourdain (Sill Matines La Potagère),
further in the West has less risks to slow down when he will go
through the ridge : «I can hope that they will stay longer than
me in the ridge, but I’m not waiting for a miracle. The boat is
suffering a lot, and I’ll have to stay careful in the strong South
Westerly winds»
The Swiss skipper Dominique Wavre (Union Bancaire Privée)
and Thomas Coville (Sodebo) seems to have found their way
out of the high pressure bubble they were stuck in for the last
three days.Dominique was telling us this morning: «I have
caught a light Nor’easterly breeze, I hope it is the beginning
of the trade winds, and this would mean we’ve passed the
Doldrums in less time than the Equator. I was on the line this
morning at 5 o’clock. »
The other woman in the race, Catherine Chabaud (Whirlpool)
is doing a nice come back as she is now just 400 miles from
Wavre : « I hope to keep sailing like that . I have a better
upwind boat than they have. I hope the trade winds will be well
established. I am looking at Jourdain’s course as we have the
same boat. I feel that I am very tired, Whirlpool is a very
physical boat, a lot harder than the one I had four years ago.
Also because of my water maker problem I have to reduce my
water comsumption. I will be happy to finish »
Patrice Carpentier (VM Materiaux) is part of a group of three
boats led by Bernard Gallay (Voilà.fr). Joé Seeten (Nord pas
de Calais – Chocolats du monde), has also done a good come
back, and he is a threat to the skipper of the open 50’ yellow
boat. Patrice was helpless : « Unfortunately there is nothing I
can do to avoid that , his boat is faster than mine in light
winds».
Italian and oldest skipper of the fleet, Pasquale de Gregorio
(Wind), in 16th position, is in good form and is happy with his
sailing, one of his index concern being the lack of cigars…
Michel Desjoyeaux and Ellen MacArthur have passed under the
2000 miles separating them to the finish. We estimate a
finish from Saturday afternoon onwards. The weather forecast
is bad in the bay of Les Sables d’Olonne, we are waiting more
than 40 knots of wind.
[February 04, 2001 - 1:03:48 PM]
Ellen MacArthur (Kingfisher): Sand storm!
I had the weirdest experience yesterday evening - a sand
storm! Suddenly it was raining sand, the whole deck was
brown. It was on the sails, the ropes, everything. Africa feels a
long way away, but I guess this came from Morocco.
I have been working quite hard on a long jobs list, making
sure everything is done before we attack the area of light
winds ahead. I’ve re-spliced the spinnaker sheets, re-stitched
a few strops and even cleaned the deck. I wish I could get the
black marks out though, I hate it when she’s not looking
perfect.
Had the best night’s sleep for a long time last night. Lots of
70 minute naps, with a few 20 minutes ones as well. Fantastic!
The wind was quite steady, on a clear night, with stars
everywhere.
This next 48 hours is going to be decisive, its the last chance
for anyone to pass I think. We seem to have been keeping
our distance on Bilou although he’s been climbing slightly on
both of us [meaning he has been sailing higher and therefore
gaining ground to east], but thats probably due to a better
wind angle out to the west. I’ve worked to get a bit of
separation from Mich by sailing a bit closer to the wind and
accepting some speed loss, so at least I’m not just following
his tracks. We’ll see whether it makes any difference - this
shouldn’t be as bad as the Doldrums, but in every unstable
wind mass there are always chances to pick up a ride from a
friendly cloud...
Wind is now down to 13 knots and quite steady, time for a sail
change to the
genoa I think. Grind in the smaller ’solent’ sail and roll out the
big’n.
We’re going in to the CALM ZONE...it just reindexs to be seen
how long we are
there. The routing software says we should be out by
tomorrow, but I don’t
really trust that computer programme!
Got to go, down 12 knots of wind...
ellen
xx
Source: Kingfisher Challenges
[February 04, 2001 - 1:00:09 PM]
Pasquale de Gregorio (Wind): "Lack of cigars"
02/04/01 52.46S 128.32W 03:34 GMT
Today we sailed well; the wind, a NW of 20-25 knots,
reindexed stable in intensity and direction. We should have
done over 200 miles in the day, although I am northern in
latitude (53 degrees). No problem to go south 3 degrees (56
of Cape Horn). The problem is instead, as usual, the
forecasts.
The New Zealanders are really something! In two hours time
they sent two bulletins unbelievably opposite: one places a
promontory of high pressure N, while the other places a front
at NW. And as usual, I will keep going day by day trying to
understand myself where is more convenient be. I should be
in few more hours in the next meridian (-8 G) and with a
barometer dropping a bit.
Everything else is fine. I am also fine. To alleviate the lack of
cigars I am attacking the reserves of chewing gums on board,
but I must admit, it is tough. Well, since tomorrow is Sunday,
I will have to comfort myself with a bottle of good red wine."
Source: Oriana Ubaldi - Wind
[February 04, 2001 - 11:50:36 AM]
Dominique Wavre (Union Bancaire Privée):"Wait and se… it’s
easier to say it than doing it ! I have no power on the
elements !"
"I am in a Nor’Easterly breeze, I hope it will last . Looking at
the files, the Doldrums are behind us now and I can see the
trade wind clouds ahead of me."
"It’s not a pleasure sailing but it’s very tiring for the gear.
Sometimes I am a bit fed up, It’s stupid to fight during weeks
and to lose everything in three days because of something
you can’t predict. I need to wait and see but it’s always easier
to say than to do it. I have no power on the elements.
"The last three days in the Doldrums were terrible, I hope the
breeze I caught will last, It’s time to arrive soon.
"When there is no wind at all theer is no point to do any
manœuvres, sometimes I don’t move at all. Yesterday I
watched some DVD, I read a bit. I watched « Titanic », it was
an ironical present I got at the start, it ‘s a bit shocking to
watch that kind of things . I have watched all myDVD, but I
still have some books to read. »
[February 04, 2001 - 11:25:14 AM]
Patrice Carpentier (VM Matériaux) :
It’s a stormy weather. The sky is black behind me. Last night
I saw plenty of lightings in the sky. The wind was very variable
in strentgh and direction all night. Yesterday morning I was
stuck : no wind at all, so I decided to climb up the mast, but
as tthe boat was rolling from one side to the other, I turned
back half way.
I was afraid that it will be long to come back up the Atlantic
again, and it is indeed! We are all very slow. Only my friend
Joe has done a good come back ! But I believe theer is
nothing I can about that, I am slower than him in light airs
and Gallay has gone ahead. »
[February 04, 2001 - 11:20:49 AM]
Roland Jourdain (Sill Matines La Potagère) : "If I feel that my
boat can go fast, I’ll let her go, but I don’t want to crash..."
"It’s not too bad but it’s hard. The boat is slamming, making
strange noises, it’s really not funny. Especially last night the
wind went up between 18 and 28 knot, and it’s shifting and
the sea is difficult. The boat suffers from the condition and
you never know what sails to put up. My heading is not the
best. During the night I take two reefs to have the peace of
mind with my repair. Apart from that I am making good
progress I am not going to complain!
After I will have to negotiate the ridge and I will only have to
hope cowardly than the others will slow down more than me.
I am looking at my routing softwares and studying the charts.
It’s not very complicated, I only have to go as fast as
possible. If I am lucky they will stay longer than me in the
light airs. But I am not waiting for a miracle. Theoratically we
should follow this low pressure than there will be a transition
with the following ones.
I’ am going to try to gain miles little by little and we’ll see
what problems the others will encounter.
Physically I’m fine as it’s not very physical in the trade winds.
It’s more psycholoqic as you can’t make any mistake. I must
be careful with my boat as Thiercelin is not far behind. If I feel
that my boat can go fast, I’ll let her go, but I don’t want to
crash... »
[February 04, 2001 - 10:55:45 AM]
Michel Desjoyeaux (PRB) : « I have more to lose than to win
and Ellen has more to win than to lose »
"As we are climbing up to the North, the trade wind is getting
lighter. Since yesterday it has dropped quite a lot and it is still
decreasing. I need to cross that ridge.
I hope the sea won’t be too chopped. One more obstacle I
need to pass, and this time I hope it will work out well for me,
then I will be able to join the Westerly motorway.
If tomorrow afternoon I am out of that system I will be happy.
The final sprint with strong winds ! I can see 50 knots + arrows
on the weather maps, they might be the stronger winds I have
had on my whole round the world trip, and with a much bigger
sea than in the South.
We’ll have wind for the last days of the race, and tha’s good
news, we’ll be back home quicker. As a tactician I will try to be
between Ellen and the finish line and to be as fast as possible
with PRB to reach the line. We have seen than our boats have
the same speed. But I am not going to think too much about
that and do my own race just like I’ve done since the start. Je
ne vais pas me prendre la tête je vais continuer comme
depuis le début.
I have more to lose than to win and Ellen has more to win
than to lose But we’ll see… I am not worried. |
